2019 - Round 22 : Too Close To Call

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The average bookmaker handicap for Round 22 is a ridiculous 8.6 points per game, the lowest for a single round in all of the history we’re tracking.

That average would have been lower still but for the final game of the round, Hawks v Suns, where the expected margin is about 7 goals. All eight of the remaining games have expected margins of under 2 goals, and five of them have expected margins of under 1 goal. If you’re in a tipping contest, this round will almost certainly see some big changes on the leaderboard.

With this week’s average dragging it down, the 2019 all-season average now stands at 16.8 points per game, which is over 4 points per game below the 2018 average.

So, any chance of some contrarian head-to-head tips?

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Well, there’s certainly more support for underdogs than is normally the case, with eight of the games seeing at least one Head-to-Head Tipster lining up behind other than the favourite (or, in the Melbourne v Sydney game, where there are equal favourites, the team higher on the competition ladder, Sydney).

In that Dees v Swans game the line includes four Tipsters. and in the Lions v Cats, and Roos v Power games it includes three Tipsters.

Importantly, MoSSBODS_Marg has selected the underdog in three contests, and the RSMP twins in one, so there is a possibility of some movement at the top of the Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, four games have produced forecasts on either side of zero, and there are single-digit margin predictions in four others. The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is 10.4 points per game, which is 1.8 points per game higher than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts is for the Tigers v Eagles game, where they span 22 points thanks to MoSSBODS_Marg and C_Marg. There’s also a 20-point range in the Lions v Cats game, and a 17-point range in the Hawks v Suns game. No other game has a range larger than 14 points.

C_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in six games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple (sic) in five.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Tigers v Eagles game where the forecasts span 24% points. Three other games have ranges from 14% points to 18% points, and the remainder have ranges between 5% points and 9% points.

C_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob have the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, Bookie_OE in three.

WAGERS

Investors have an unusually concentrated set of wagers this week, with seven wagers across the nine games that span only four teams. There are three head-to-head wagers, ranging in size from 2.2% on Melbourne, to 3.4% on Richmond, and four line wagers, ranging in size from 0.4% on Melbourne, to 2.6% on Brisbane Lions.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by Brisbane Lions. The difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them represents 3.6% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Richmond carrying 2.8% risk, Melbourne 1.5%, and Hawthorn 0.8%.

In total, just under 5% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just under 4%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.