2019 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are, on average, forecasting slightly lower totals this week than the bookmakers, and have higher forecasts in only the Dees v Swans, and Tigers v Eagles games, which are both to be played on a potentially damp MCG.

For most-likely low-scoring game we have the MoS twins both opting for Hawks v Suns, but the bookmakers going with Dees v Swans, while for most-likely high-scoring game we have all four selecting Lions v Cats.

As low-scoring team we have all four forecasters tipping the Suns, and for high-scoring it’s a unanimous vote for the their opponents, the Hawks, who are also the only team tipped to rack up a three-figure score.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were again shared, this time amongst MoSSBODS (lowest for Home Team and for Away Team Scores), MoSHBODS (lowest for Game Margins), and the TAB (lowest for Total Scores).

That saw MoSHBODS, finally, surrender 1st overall for the season on Total Score MAE to the TAB, which also remains 1st on Home Team Score and Game Margin MAEs. Easybet retains 1st on Away Team Score MAE.

MoSHBODS now trails the TAB on Total Score MAE by just 2.4 points, so there’s a real possibility it can regain the lead this week

It’s interesting to note that, even 180 games in, there are still persistent non-trivial biases in the forecasts:

  • All four forecasters have tended to over-estimate Home Team scores (by between 1 and 3 points per game)

  • Both bookmakers have also tended to over-estimate Away Team scores (by about 2 points per game)

  • The MoS twins have tended to under-estimate Away Team scores (by about 1 to 2 points per game)

  • As a result, all four forecasters have tended to over-estimate Game Margins from a Home Team perspective (by about 3 to 3.5 points per game)

  • Both bookmakers have tended to over-estimate Total scores (by about 4 points per game)

  • The MoS twins have also tended to over-estimate Total scores (but only by about 1 point per game)

WAGERS

This week MoSSBODS has identified five possible wagers, two of which are overs bets ruled out by the Melbourne weather forecast.

We’re left then with three bets, all unders, the overlays for which range from about 7 to 15 points.

Last week there was one unsuccessful unders wager with the TAB, one successful unders wager with Easybet, and the season’s first successful overs bet with Easybet. That moved MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 14 and 14, and that against Easybet to 23 and 19, lifting the overall win rate to 53% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS landed on the right side of the TAB and of Easybet in only 3 of the 9 games (fortunately, we found two of those three correct MoSSBODS calls to bet on with Easybet). That took MoSSBODS to a 53% record for the season against the TAB and Easybet, and took MoSHBODS to a 52% record for the season against the TAB, and a 53% record against Easybet.