2019 - Round 18 : The Window's Closing

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The average expected margin for Round 18 is just 16.3 points per game, the lowest for any round since Round 14, and the lowest for any nine-game round since Round 10. It’s also the second-lowest average for a Round 18 across the period we’re analysing, and nine points below the all-season average for Round 18s across that same period.

That low average has come about because six of the nine games have an expected margin of roughly 3 goals or less, and none has an expected margin greater than 25.5 points.

The 2019 all-season average now stands at 17.0 points per game, which remains almost 4 points per game below the 2018 average.

So, how have the MoS models dealt with all this apparent uncertainty?

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, it’s virtually an all-favourites board for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, the only exception coming in the GWS v Collingwood game, where Home Sweet Home has been joined by ENS_Linear, C_Marg, and the MoS twins in opting for the narrow underdog Giants.

That means though, if MoSHPlay_Marg sides with MoSHBODS, the trailing pack of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins will have a chance to draw level this week on the Leaderboard. They currently trail by just one tip.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only the Giants v Pies game has produced forecasts on either side of zero, and those forecasts all span a 9-point range if you politely ignore MoSSBODS_Marg’s outlying forecast that adds 12 to that range.

Their mean expected margin is 15.7 points per game, which is only 0.4 points per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Dees v Eagles game, where they span a 30 point range. In no other game does the range exceed 21 points, and in most games it’s in the 10 to 17 point range.

C_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in seven games this week, Bookie_3 and MoSSBODS_Marg in three, and Bookie_Hcap, the RSMP twins, ENS_Linear, and MoSHBODS_Marg in one each.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest ranges in probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Dees v Eagles game where the forecasts span 29% points. Next-largest is the 24% point range for the Giants v Pies game, followed by the Cats v Hawks game with 18% points. The remaining games are all in the 7% to 15% point ranges.

C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, MoSSBODS_Prob in four, Bookie_OE, Bookie_RE, Bookie_LPSO, and MoSHBODS_Prob in two each.

WAGERS

A moderately busy week for Investors this week, with seven wagers across five of the nine games putting about 7% of the original Combined Funds in play. There are four head-to-head wagers, ranging in size from a little under 1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund to 5% of it, and three line wagers ranging in size from 2.7% to 3.7% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by GWS. The difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them represents 4.5% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Melbourne carrying 3.3% risk, Hawthorn carrying 3.0% risk, Brisbane Lions carrying 1.8% risk, and St Kilda carrying 0.7% risk.

In total, 7% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just over 6%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.