2019 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

This week looks very similar to last week, with the MoS twins, on average, forecasting slightly lower totals than the bookmakers, though still differing by non-trivial amounts in a number of games.

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For most-likely low-scoring game we have everyone opting for the Swans v Dockers game, though with MoSSBODS calling it a near draw between that game and the Cats v Tigers fixture. For most-likely high-scoring game we have the MoS twins and Easybet favouring the Lions v Roos game, and the TAB selecting the Lions v Roos game as well, but adding the Dees v Eagles game as an equally-likely possibility.

As low-scoring team we have unanimity once again, this week about the Suns as that team, and for high-scoring team we have MoSHBODS choosing the Lions alone, MoSSBODS choosing the Lions and the Blues, the TAB choosing the Tigers and the Blues, and Easybet choosing the Tigers alone. So, Lions, Blues, Tigers - one of them …

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were shared amongst our forecasters, with the TAB equal 1st with Easybet on Game Margin, Easybet 1st alone on Home Team scores, and MoSHBODS 1st alone on Away Team scores and Game Totals.

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Total Score MAE, the TAB still 1st on Home Team Score and Game Margin MAE, and Easybet still first on Away Team Score.

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WAGERS

This week MoSSBODS has again identified four wagers, but, very unusually, they’re split between two overs and two unders bets, the weather forecast being insufficiently inclement to preclude overs bets at Adelaide Oval on Friday night, and the Gabba on Saturday.

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The overlays in the games on which we’ve wagers range from about 8 to 9 points, which are once again only just enough to elicit wagers from us.

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Last week, there was one successful wager from one with the TAB, and two successful wagers from three with Easybet, which altered MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 12 and 8, and that against Easybet to 21 and 14, lifting the overall win rate to 60% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round the results were less stellar, with MoSSBODS landing on the right side of the TAB in only 4 of the 9 games, and on the right side of Easybet in only 5 of 9. MoSHBODS managed 5 from 9 against the TAB, and 6 from 9 against Easybet, which took both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS to 57% records for the season against the TAB, and 58% records against Easybet.