2019 - Round 1 Results - Under(s) Achieving

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So, what to make of all that then?

In a round where only four favourites were victorious, the simplistic strategy of tipping the home team actually outperformed the bookmakers, a fact that sees Home Sweet Home atop the MoS Head-to-Head Tipping Leaderboard for what I can only imagine will be the last time this season.

A majority of the remaining Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged just 4 correct tips, which left the all-Tipster average for the round at just 3.8 correct tips from 9.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, Bookie_9 and C_Marg effectively dead-heated for best mean absolute error (MAE), though their 39.1 points per game result was far from applause-worthy. Our newest Predictor, MoSHPlay_Marg, turned in the round’s worst MAE, but finished only about 5 goals behind the leaders. That gap would have been 5 points narrower had I detected the Sparrow for Lewis exchange prior to the start of the Melbourne v Port Adelaide game. I’m only now beginning to understand just how profoundly unreliable is the “no change” designation on the Teams portion of the AFL site.

The all-Predictor MAE of 40.4 points per game reflects just how unpredictable margins (and winners) were this week.

Probability Scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were mostly negative this week, except for C_Prob, who started the season with an uncharacteristically (relatively) well-calibrated set of forecasts. The original MoS twins fared less well, but well enough to grab second and third places on the Leaderboard, ahead of all of the bookmaker-based forecasters. MoSHPlay_Prob fared worst of all, and was particularly badly affected by the Melbourne loss, which it had assessed as only about a 25% probability.

WAGERS

This week produced just shy of a 2c gain in the value of the Combined Portfolio, thanks mainly to the 8 from 9 performance of the Overs/Unders Fund.

The Head-to-Head Fund also collected on its lone wager, leaving the Line Fund as the sole losing Fund of the round. A significant portion of its loss came from an erroneous wager on Essendon, which would not have been made had I detected the data input error in that game earlier.

(The rule here on MoS is that no wager can be cancelled once I’ve published it on the site.)