2018 - Team Ratings After Round 21

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There was very little movement on either MoS System this week, with MoSSBODS swapping Sydney into 10th and dropping Brisbane Lions into 12th, and MoSHBODS moving Essendon ahead of Geelong, and the Western Bulldogs ahead of the Brisbane Lions. For the remaining teams, there were rating changes, but they were relatively small.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of 12 teams, and differing in the ranking of no other team by more than a single place.

Richmond are now 3 clear Scoring Shots ahead of Melbourne on MoSSBODS, and 10.4 points ahead of GWS on MoSHBODS.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both still have Top 3s on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then GWS
  • MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Collingwood, after GWS fell out of 3rd and into 5th
  • MoSHBODS now has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then West Coast, after GWS fell from 2nd to 4th, and West Coast clambered over Collingwood to grab that Top 3 spot.

On offence, Melbourne is rated 0.6 Scoring Shots better than Richmond by MoSSBODS, and 1 point better than Richmond by MoSHBODS.

On defence, Richmond is rated 2.0 Scoring Shots better than Port Adelaide by MoSSBODS, and 4.9 points better than Port Adelaide by MoSHBODS.

Across all 18 teams, it's still the case that no team is ranked more than two places differently on either offence or defence by the two Systems. 

The generally subdued nature of rating changes this week is reflected in the latest version of the animated GIF of MoSSBODS ratings, which appears below and shows movements up or down by 0.5 Scoring Shots or more on either offence or defence only for:

  • Western Bulldogs +0.5 on offence
  • Port Adelaide -0.7 on offence
  • West Coast +0.6 on defence
  • North Melbourne -0.5 on defence

On Combined Rating, the big movers were:

  • Collingwood +0.6
  • Western Bulldogs +0.5
  • Brisbane Lions -0.6
  • North Melbourne -0.5
MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 21 - Smooth.gif

Relative to history, Richmond's Combined Rating remains just inside the top decile of teams at this point in the season that ultimately played in the Grand Final, while Melbourne is now the only other team above the median. (Note that the number of teams shown on this chart will have dropped this week compared to last because many home and away seasons did not extend to 21 rounds).

Sydney, who are now 6th on the competition ladder, still have a Combined Rating lower than all previous Grand Finalists at the end of Round 21, and lower than Port Adelaide, Geelong, North Melbourne, Essendon, and Adelaide, all of whom sit below them on the competition ladder.

As things stand now:

  • seven teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
  • one has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
  • four have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
  • six have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)

In total, only eight teams now have a positive offensive rating while 11 have a positive defensive rating.

On ChiPS this week, only seven teams changed places, and only St Kilda (down 2 into 16th) by more than a single spot. MARS moved nine teams again, as it did last week, but also only St Kilda (down 2 into 16th) by more than a single spot.

Both Systems still agree that the top two teams are Richmond and Melbourne, but ChiPS now has Collingwood in 3rd, while MARS has West Coast there.

The two Systems differ now by more than two places in their rankings only of Collingwood, ranked 3rd on ChiPS and 6th on MARS, and Geelong, ranked 7th on ChiPS and 4th on MARS.

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Geelong, Essendon, and Melbourne significantly lower on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
  • West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn sit significantly higher on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
  • Essendon (6th to 11th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Sydney (8th to 12th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.