2018 - Round 21 Results - MoS' Melbourne Miscalculation

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The MoS twins were very bullish about the Dees' chances this weekend and paid the price in all three of our forecaster fields.

They were by no means alone amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters in opting for the Dees, however, since no-one tipped the Swans in that game. The pair managed to out-tip most of the remainder of the field in the other games, which allowed them to close the gap to those above them by a tip or two. MoSHBODS is now 7 tips off the lead, and MoSSBODS 11 tips.

The four Tipsters at the very top of the Leaderboard all recorded 5 from 9 performances, which left ENS_Linear in 1st and now on 127.5 from 180 (71%), still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best.

The twins suffered more heavily for their Dees optimism amongst the Margin Predictors, registering two of the four highest mean absolute errors (MAEs) in what was a remarkably predictable round. MoSSBODS_Marg's MAE of 16 points per game slipped it back into 5th place on the Leaderboard, allowing ENS_Linear to grab 4th.

Those were the only moves on the Leaderboard, which now sees Bookie_Hcap in front by just over 4 goals from Bookie_3.

Probability Scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were mildly positive, best for MoSHBODS_Prob and worst for MoSSBODS_Prob who'd attached a relative large probability to a Melbourne victory. That slipped MoSSBODS_Prob back into 4th on the Leaderboard, behind Bookie_LPSO. Bookie_OE still leads.

WAGERS

Investors had the better of the luck up until Sunday afternoon when Melbourne's waywardness in front of goal saw them turn a six scoring shot surplus into a nine point loss.

That result reduced the Head-to-Head Fund's profit down to just over 2c for the round and plunged the Line Fund even further into loss.

There was good news on the Overs/Unders front, however, with that Fund returning a 3 from 4 performance and a 3c gain. Still, it's down by almost 21c on the season.

In aggregate, the Combined Portfolio fell by 1c to finish down by 6.2c on the season from a -3.5% ROI on about a 1.75 turn.

But, oh what might have been ...