2018 - Round 6 Results - Absurdly Predictable

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Eight of nine favourites collected the points this week, and the MoS twins recorded mean absolute errors (MAEs) under 21.5 points per game - and still lost ground to every other Margin Predictor except C_Marg. Fair to say it was much easier to be close to right this week than it was to be disastrously wrong.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters there were enough contrarian tips that only the two RSMP Tipsters matched Bookie Knows Best's (BKB's) 8 from 9, though four more Tipsters bagged 7 from 9. BKB's performance was good enough to lift it into a share of the lead with ENS_Linear, they now both on 36.5 from 54 (68%).

Bookie_Hcap registered the round's best MAE of just 15.7 points per game, which catapulted it from 5th to 1st on the Leaderboard. The top six Predictors are separated by only 9 points, however, so its essentially a dead-heat at the top at the moment.

With Bookie_Hcap - and, by implication, the TAB Bookmaker - doing so well, it's no surprise that none of the Margin Predictors has been able to consistently pick the winning team on line betting. None of them has a record better than 50%, and only Bookie_9 has even achieved that level.

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors it was a "fill your boots" kind of round, with Bookie_RE recording the best log probability score (LPS) of both the round and the season. Everyone ended up with a positive LPS for the round, though the MoS twins' and C_Prob's were depressed by the ill-placed confidence they had in North Melbourne.

At the top it's still Bookie_LPSO leading out, and at the bottom, C_Prob.

WAGERS

As noted in the previous blog, the weekend's wagering was all about the Roos, and their large loss made inevitably for a significantly unprofitable weekend.

The Overs/Unders Fund's 3 from 6 performance meant that it could do nothing to offset the Head-to-Head Fund's and Line Fund's sizeable losses, which left the Combined Portfolio down by about 6c on the round.

That leaves the Combined Portfolio down now by 6.7c now on the season, the result of a -12.0% ROI on about a 0.56 turn.