2017 - Round 23 Results - Really Simple Prove Remarkably Effective
/The competition ladder and the TAB Bookmaker were relatively poor indicators of the winning teams and their margins this weekend.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors, Bookie Knows Best and Consult The Ladder bagged only 5 from 9, the round's lowest score. Home Sweet Home fared best, tipping 8 from 9 in a round where the all-Predictor average was 6.1. Home Sweet Home remains last, however.
At the top of the Leaderboard, MoSSBODS_Marg scored 7 from 9, to go to 128.5 from 198 for the season (65%) one better than the two RSMP Predictors who now sit a tip behind MoSSBODS_Marg in equal-second.
C_Marg recorded the round's best mean absolute error (MAE) amongst the Margin Predictors, over 2 points per game better than the next-best MAEs of the RSMP Predictors. Their MAEs of around 32 to 33 points per game were good enough to have them both leapfrogging MoSHBODS_Marg to grab 1st and 2nd spots between them. MoSHBODS_Marg is now almost 13 points off the lead.
The all-Predictor average MAE for the week was 33.9 points per game, which took the all-Predictor season average MAE to a smidge under 29 points per game.
C_Prob, for the third week in a row, did best amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors on log probability score, though it remains comfortably last on the ladder. MoSSBODS_Prob did next-best this week, ahead of Bookie_LPSO, but all of the remaining scores were sufficiently similar to leave us with the same top 3 as we had last week: MoSHBODS_Prob, Bookie_OE and then Bookie_LPSO.
WAGERS
Another loss this week, this one the fourth-biggest for a single round this season and due entirely to the Overs/Unders Fund's 0 from 4 performance. Maybe I should have taken Centrebet's refusal to accept the entirety of my bets as a sign.
The total loss was 2% of the original Overall Portfolio, which is now up by 28.6% on the season. That result comes from a 14.5% ROI on a 1.97 turn.
