2017 - Round 10 : MoSSBODS Takes a Stand

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There are very high levels of agreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with the only underdog forecasts coming from MoSSBODS and, of all things, C_Marg in their selections of Port Adelaide and GWS, from Consult The Ladder also in its selection of GWS, and from Home Sweet Home in its selection of Carlton. The other 75 tips are all for favourites.

This concordance has left the all-Tipster Disagreement Index at just 12% for the round, its second-lowest value of the season, above only the 5% from Round 8. 

The Margin Predictors show even less divergence of opinion, disagreeing most about the size of the Crows' victory over the Dockers, where their forecasts span a five-goal range and have mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 7.9 points per Predictor.

Individually, C_Marg has the highest MAD - 8.6 points per game this week, slightly below its all-season average of 9.1 points per game - and MoSSBODS_Marg has the second-highest. The all-Predictor MAD is just 3.9 points per game per Predictor, the lowest single-round value of the year..

Despite the clustering of the forecasts, one interesting feature of the margin predictions collectively this week is that about 39% of them represent a victory margin of less than 2 goals, which is the second-lowest proportion for a single round this season, behind only the 53% from Round 1. Across all 89 games so far, about 33% of the 890 forecasts have been under 12 points in absolute terms.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors have only slightly higher levels of disagreement than either of the other forecast families, their collective MAD of 3.8% points per game the 4th-lowest figure for a single round this season.

C_Prob, for the fifth week in succession, has the highest individual MAD of 7% points per game, while MoSSBODS_Prob has the second-highest. Only two games have MADs above 5% points: Geelong v Port Adelaide, and Adelaide v Fremantle.

WAGERS

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have disagreed with the bookmakers this week just enough to induce four head-to-head and four line wagers, split evenly in both cases between favourites and underdogs.

Combined, the eight wagers represent only 4.5% of the original Overall Portfolio, which is the smallest proportion put at risk in a single round this season, lowering the 5.2% mark set in Round 5.

Three games carry no bets at all, while two have such relatively small bets that the swing between worst-case and best-case outcomes spans just 0.3% of original Funds.

The remaining four games all have swings of between 1.5% and 2%, but the Crows v Dockers game has far more downside than upside. In that game, an Adelaide win would add just 0.3c to the Overall Portfolio, while a loss would strip 1.7c from it.

In aggregate, a set of best-case outcomes would lift the Overall Portfolio price by just over 3c, while a set of worst-case outcomes would drop it by 4.5c.

MoSSBODS AND MoSHBODS

Here are the MoS twins views about this week's team and total scoring.

Commentary later in the week.