2017 - Team Ratings After Round 9

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Adelaide, according to MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, didn't do quite enough in their victory over the Lions to reclaim the number 1 spot, which has now been held by Port Adelaide for the past two weeks.

Though the Crows ultimately prevailed over the Lions by 80 points, the scoring shot differential was only 10, which is small given the substantial difference in the teams' pre-game ratings. As a result, the Crows rating actually fell slightly under both Systems.

Four teams were multi-spot movers on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS over the weekend, Sydney rising 3 places on MoSSBODS and 2 places on MoSHBODS, West Coast and Melbourne falling 2 places on both Systems, and Essendon climbing 2 places on both. In total six teams rose and six fell on MoSSBODS, while just five rose and five fell on MoSHBODS.

Collingwood and Geelong remain the teams most differently ranked under the two approaches, MoSSBODS having them in 5th and 8th, respectively, as MoSHBODS having them 8th and 5th.

Here, in a different and less cluttered form than usually appears here, is an animation of the teams' MoSSBODS rating at the end of each week of the current season.

(The guernseys, by the way, are courtesy of www.footyjumpers.com)

In an historical context, Adelaide's and Port Adelaide's current ratings compare favourably with many of the ultimately successful teams from previous seasons.

In contrast, the Brisbane Lions are moving into deep south-western waters.

The component view highlights the ratings bonanza that was the Swans' win over the Saints. It lifted the Swans' Offensive ranking by 2 to 3 places, and its Defensive ranking by 5 places.

Conversely, the Saints' Defensive ranking took a significant hit, falling 4 places under both approaches.

That Defensive climb by Sydney moved it into 3rd place on MoSSBODS and represented the only change in the top 3 rankings on defence or offence by either of the Systems. They both have the Top 3 offensive teams as Adelaide, Port Adelaide and GWS, in that order, and both have the Top 2 defensive teams as the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide. MoSSBODS, as mentioned, has Sydney ranked 3rd on defence, while MoSHBODS puts GWS there.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also agree that the competition's worst offences belong to Carlton and the Brisbane Lions, and the worst defences to the Brisbane Lions and either Essendon (MoSSBODS) or the Gold Coast (MoSHBODS). 

ChiPS AND MARS

The ChiPS and MARS Systems, unlike MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, look only at scores in determining their Ratings. As such, both rewarded Adelaide for their 80-point victory over the Lions, which moved the Crows into 1st on ChiPS and left them in 1st on MARS.

Port Adelaide and GWS occupy the 2nd and 3rd places, respectively, on both Systems.

Richmond, despite losing, gained ChiPS and MARS Rating Points, which served to widen their ranking gap under the two Systems. ChiPS now has the Tigers in 4th, while MARS has them 11th. I can't recall such a large difference in rankings any time previously.

Other teams rated more than a couple of places differently by ChiPS and MARS are Collingwood (ranked 8th on ChiPS and 12th on MARS), West Coast (10th and 6th), and Hawthorn (16th and 13th).

The round's biggest movers on the two Systems were:

  • Sydney (up 3 places on ChiPS and 2 places on MARS)
  • West Coast (down 3 places on ChiPS and 2 places on MARS)
  • Essendon (up 3 places on ChiPS and 2 places on MARS)

A quick and simple assessment of the tipping accuracy of ChiPS and MARS this season reveals that:

  • For ChiPS: 45 of its higher-rated teams have won. Once venue and form adjustments have been made, this score rises to 46, which is one fewer correct tip than the TAB Bookmaker
  • For MARS: 44 of its higher-rated teams have won. Using a fixed 6 Rating Point Home Ground Advantage (which is the figure used in MARS' own ELO algorithm), its score rises to 47, which matches the TAB Bookmaker.

So, purely as head-to-head tipsters, ChiPS and MARS have been acceptably accurate so far this season. Maybe I might keep them for 2018 after all (though ChiPS' margin predictions will need to improve.)