2017 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders Update
/This week, the average absolute difference between MoSSBODS' and the bookmakers' opinions about game totals is about 7 points per game. In seven of the games, the difference is more than six points, which has led to the most wagering activity we've seen from the Over/Under Fund this season. But more about that in a moment.
The largest difference is in the Carlton v Sydney game, where MoSSBODS (and MoSHBODS, as it happens) is forecasting a total of 204 points compared to the TAB's 197.5 and Centrebet's 195.5.
In the Roos v Suns game, the difference is almost as great, though here both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS are foreseeing smaller totals: 188 versus about 197.
The smallest of the differences comes in the Cats v Pies game where all four have estimates in the 186 to 189 point range.
At a team level, each forecaster has the Crows as the round's most likely high-scoring team and predicted to score between 115 and 117 points. All four also expect Carlton to be low-scorer for the round, scoring somewhere in the 70 to 78 point range. MoSSBODS thinks that the Tigers might also register a similarly low score.
MoSSBODS' divergent views have resulted in seven over/under bets this week, four on unders and three on overs.
Those seven wagers put 14% of the original Over/Under Fund at risk, which equates to 2.8% of the original Overall Portfolio. A best-case set of results would add about 2.4c to the price of that Overall Portfolio, while a worst-case set would shave off 2.8c. At least four collects is required for a profit.
