2015 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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A quiet week on ChiPS Team Ratings, with the only change of note the elevation of Fremantle into 5th at the expense of the Kangaroos. Further down the ladder there were other, less consequential, moves, the Saints dropping two places into 15th, allowing both the Dees and the Dons to climb a spot, and the Lions relegating the Blues to 18th.

At the top of the ladder, Hawthorn now enjoys a lead of more than 10 Rating Points (RPs) over the Eagles and they, in turn, have about a 5 RP lead over the Tigers. Ten teams are Rated over 1,000, the last two of which are the teams that will not be playing Finals football this season.

(A full, round-by-round version of this table is at the end of this blog.)

MARS re-Ranked one team fewer than ChiPS this week, and none by more than one place. Adelaide grabbed 6th from the Roos, the Dogs took 9th from the Cats, while Essendon took 13th away from St Kilda. Eleven teams are now Rated over 1,000 by MARS, including Port Adelaide, which MARS Rates at 1,012.7, and Geelong, which MARS Rates at 1,004.5.

Those latter Ratings seem a little generous but, even so, ChiPS and MARS differ in their Rankings of the same team by more than two places for only a single team: Melbourne, which ChiPS Ranks 13th and MARS 16th.

The rank correlation between ChiPS' and MARS' Team Rankings remains unchanged at +0.967, while that between their Team Ratings stands at +0.975.

COLLEY, MASSEY AND ODM

At the end of last week, Massey and ODM had identical Team Rankings but this week saw Massey re-Rank nine teams and ODM only two, which left the two Systems now differing in their Rankings of seven teams. Only for Adelaide, however, does that difference amount to more than a single place, Massey elevating the Crows into 5th on the strength of last weekend's exertions, with ODM leaving them pinned at 7th.

Colley altered the Rankings of six teams this week, none by more than a single place. It remains the System with Rankings most correlated with the competition ladder (+0.994), while ChiPS remains the System with Rankings least correlated (+0.944).

Looking across the Systems, seven teams now have Rankings than span four places or more:

  • Collingwood, Ranked 9th on ChiPS and 12th on Colley
  • Fremantle, Ranked 1st on Colley and 5th on ChiPS
  • Hawthorn, Ranked 4th on Colley and 1st by all other Systems
  • The Kangaroos, Ranked 6th on ChiPS and 9th on Massey
  • Melbourne, Ranked 13th on ChiPS and 16th on MARS
  • Richmond, Ranked 3rd on ChiPS and 6th on Colley and Massey
  • The Western Bulldogs, Ranked 5th on Colley and 8th on ChiPS

ODM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Four of the Top 5 Defensive teams swapped places this week according to ODM, three climbing and one falling:

  1. Fremantle (no change)
  2. Sydney (up 1)
  3. Hawthorn (up 1)
  4. Richmond (up 1)
  5. West Coast (down 3) 

Just outside the Top 5, the Western Bulldogs held 6th, while Adelaide climbed three places into 7th.

Much less movement was seen amongst ODM's Top 5 Offensive teams as only two traded places:

  1. Hawthorn (no change)
  2. West Coast (no change)
  3. The Kangaroos (up 1)
  4. Adelaide (down 1)
  5. The Western Bulldogs (no change)

Port Adelaide remains Ranked 6th on Offence, Sydney rising two places to take 7th.

The week's changes leave only 5 teams with significantly different Offensive and Defensive Rankings (ie 5 places or more different):

  • Fremantle, Ranked 1st on Defence and 9th on Offence
  • The Kangaroos (12th and 3rd)
  • Port Adelaide (11th and 6th)
  • Richmond (4th and 10th)
  • Sydney (2nd and 7th)

MoSSBOD agrees that Fremantle and Richmond are far stronger defensively, and that the Kangaroos are far stronger offensively, but would also suggest that the Crows should join the Roos in that assessment.

Overall, MoSSBOD differs most from ODM in its Team Rankings for Fremantle, which MoSSBOD Ranks four places lower on Offence and five places lower overall. The rank correlations between MoSSBOD and ODM are now as follows:

  • Defensive Team Rankings: +0.938 (up from +0,907)
  • Offensive Team Rankings: +0.944 (down from +0.,957)
  • Overall Team Rankings: +0.955 (up from +0.944)

West Coast retained Number 1 spot on Combined MoSSBOD Ratings this week, while Hawthorn and Richmond held on to 2nd and 3rd. Sydney were the big movers, up two places into 6th, dropping the Dogs back into 5th, and Adelaide into 6th.

SIMPLE PREDICTIVE ACCURACY

MARS dropped tips against all other Systems this week and now finds itself:

  • Two tips behind ChiPS (down 1)
  • Eight tips ahead of ODM (down 2)
  • Ten tips ahead of Massey (down 2)
  • Ten tips ahead of ODM's Offensive Rankings (down 1)
  • Sixteen tips ahead of ODM's Defensive Rankings (down 1)
  • Twenty tips ahead of Colley (down 1)

COMPLETE ChiPS AND MARS ROUND-BY-ROUND TABLE

(Please click on the image for a larger version.)