2015 - Round 22 Results: A Win, A Loss - So A Loss

On Saturday, GWS comfortably covered their 25.5 point spread, starting the weekend off in a winning way for Investors before Sunday and the Saints rolled around and the 26.5 points start they were receiving proved about 12 goals too little.

So, it's a win and a loss on line betting for the round, clipping a quarter of a percent off the value of the Line Fund, and 60% of that amount off the value of the Overall Portfolio to leave it down now by 34% on the season.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Only six of the week's nine favourites were victorious this weekend and, for once, the contrarianism of the Heuristic Tipsters paid off, elevating the all-Tipster average to 6.7 from 9 and seeing Silhouette tip the card for the first time this season. Home Sweet Home recorded the lowest score of the round, four, meaning that Home teams have won only 52% of games so far this season.

The absence of dissension at the top of the Leaderboard however, meant no movement there, leaving C_Marg on 136 from 188 a tip ahead of both Bookie_3 and Combo_7.

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The round's best Mean Absolute Error (MAE) amongst the Margin Predictors belonged to Bookie_3 this week, its 33.9 points per game MAE slightly better than RSMP_Weighted's 34.2 points per game. C_Marg recorded a relatively high 38.1 points per game result but still maintains a 20 goal lead over ENS_Greedy at the top of the Leaderboard. The all-Predictor MAE for the week was 35.9 points per game per Predictor.

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C_Marg, Bookie_3 and Combo_NN2 remain the only Margin Predictors with season-long profitable records on line betting, though six other Predictors have also tipped at a rate in excess of 50%.

It's interesting to note that C_Marg and Combo_NN2 have achieved these above-average levels of accuracy in the line market despite having the second- and third-worst records of all Predictors in predicting margins within 3 goals of the actual result. They also, however, have the best and second-best records in predicting margins within 7 goals of the actual result. The success of an algorithm in the line market, it seems, is less about being very close very often and more about rarely being very distant.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week recorded their eighth above-average mean probability score in nine weeks, best among them C_Prob's and H2H's 0.52 bits per game. That performance by C_Prob left it at the top of the MoS Leaderboard, a position it seems reticent to surrender.

The Line Fund algorithm also had an encouraging week, recording its third positive probability score in four rounds.