2014 - MARS and ChiPS Ratings After R3

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It's rare for the ChiPS Rating System to add 6 Ratings Points to a team's Rating on the basis of a single result. It's rarer still for MARS to do the same thing.

But, that's exactly what ChiPS and MARS did this week on the back of the Dons' 81-point victory over the Blues.

Those Rating changes were sufficient to propel the Dons into 5th place on both Rating Systems, representing a 4 spot increase on ChiPS and a 5 spot increase on MARS. Other significant moves were made by Sydney, who climbed 3 places on ChiPS into 7th and 2 places on MARS into 4th; by Richmond, who fell 4 places on ChiPS into 8th and 3 places on MARS also into 8th; and by Brisbane Lions who fell 3 places into 16th on ChiPS and just 1 place on MARS into 15th.

These re-rankings are perhaps better depicted by charts of the rankings themselves.

ChiPS, as you can see, has been particularly unimpressed with Richmond's performances so far this season, dropping them four places into 8th from their post Round 1 4th spot. It's also been harsh on the Lions, dropping them three places into 16th.

In contrast, Essendon's performance has been lauded by ChiPS, sufficient to elevate them four places into 5th, while West Coast has been the only other multi-rung climber, up two places into 10th.

MARS, meantime, has punished the Crows, slipping them from 9th to 12th, while also dropping the Tigers from 5th to 8th on the strength of their first three results. Essendon and West Coast are the only teams to have been elevated by MARS by more than a single place, the Dons rising from 8th to 5th, and the Eagles from 10th to 7th.

In this Wagers & Tips post for the end of Round 3, I promised to inform readers about the status of ChiPS-based wagering. So, here's the detail:

In short, wagering on the basis of C-Prob, even after assuming a 5% point error in its probability assessments, has been quite lucrative, largely because of a couple of brave (astute?) calls on the Saints in Rounds 1 and 2.

Despite a vanishingly small loss in Round 3, C-Prob wagering has so far delivered a 23.8% return on funds invested (and an obscenely high ROI). Doubtless, future rounds will dilute and diminish this return.

(It's nice to know that Chi's a far better bettor in death than in life ...)