2014 - Round 4: Full Coverage

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For the first time this season the three MatterOfStats Funds have conspired to prevent Investors from enjoying any of the weekend's nine contests free from financial worry.

We've four wagers from the Head-to-Head Fund at prices ranging from $2.20 to $3.85 and with sizes ranging from 0.5% to 1.6%., in aggregate representing an outlay larger than the combined wagering of the Fund in the preceding three rounds. To go with this bet quartet from the Head-to-Head Fund, the Line Fund has ventured six additional wagers, the same record number as it made in Round 3, and the Margin Fund has scattered 10 more wagers across five games, also an equal-record for it for the season.

In total the round's 20 wagers put 7.3% of the entire Recommended Portfolio at risk, eclipsing last weekend's 6%.

Mercifully, in only one of the five games in which we've SuperMargin wagers do we face the Chasm of Despair that arises whenever the margin opinions of the underlying Fund algorithms have us wagering in non-contiguous buckets. I find it especially unsettling to enter the latter stages of a game with the score mid-Chasm, pleading for a team to score - either one, I don't care which - to abseil us back into profit.

So much action from the Funds makes for a lively Ready Reckoner for the round.

Sunday's games include the two contests in which Investors have the largest potential upside, a 19-point win by Sydney (yes, that's right, it does have to be exactly that) promising a 3.6c gain, and a 1 to 9 point win by Fremantle promising only a little less. Five other games carry upside in excess of 1c, including two on Saturday where the upside is closer to 2c. Four games, three on Saturday and one on Sunday, harbour downsides of just over 1c.

The range of possible aggregate outcomes from the weekend span a loss of 7c to a gain of 15c.

HEAD-TO-HEAD TIPSTERS

Just as there's heightened activity in the weekend's wagering, so too is there greater general diversity of opinion amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters.

In only one game is there unanimity, the Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions clash where no Tipster can see its way clear of getting behind Port. The Carlton v Melbourne game is the next-least contentious with just the two Easily Impressed Tipsters plumping for the Dees, and in the Sydney v Kangaroos contest only three Tipsters have sided with the Roos.

Amongst the remaining six games there are at least nine minority Tipsters in five of them, the GWS v Western Bulldogs game engendering especially high levels of disagreement, resulting in an 18-10 split in favour of the bookmaker-underdog Giants.

Overall, the Disagreement Index values are very high this week, so much so that a randomly chosen tip from a randomly chosen Tipster is likely to differ from another tip for the same game but from a different randomly chosen Tipster, 34% of the time. Silhouette is the Tipster with the most atypical set of predictions, registering 48% on the Disagreement Index.

MARGIN PREDICTIONS

The Margin Predictors are less divided than the Head-to-Head Tipsters, but still are split on four of the contests, as evidenced by average predicted victory margins of about a goal or less.

In the five other games the average predicted margins vary, in absolute terms, from a low of about 15 points, which is Hawthorn's predicted victory margin over the Gold Coast, to a high of just over 53 points, which is Port Adelaide's expected margin over the Lions.

C-Marg, once again, has recorded the largest average absolute difference from the all-Predictor norm, this week coming in at a difference of 9 points per game. Combo_NN_1 is next-most different at 8.2 points per game.

PROBABILITY PREDICTORS

In the same four games in which the Margin Predictors straddle zero, the Probability Predictors straddle 50%.

The largest range of opinions comes in the St Kilda v Adelaide game where C-Prob represents the high point at 79% and Bookie - RE the low point at 39%. Saturday's GWS v Western Bulldogs matchup has also produced a range of opinions, H2H assessing the Giants as 60% chances and C-Prob assessing them as 29%. 

Narrowest of all is the range in the Carlton v Melbourne game where all eight Probability Predictors have made probability assessments within 4% points of each other.

(I note in passing that the H2H algorithm has this week, for the first time in a long while that I can recall, triggered the 99% cap rule that I impose on probability assessments, so confident is it that Port Adelaide will defeat the Lions. ProPred very nearly triggered the cap too, its assessment coming in at 98.95%, and WinPred didn't miss by much either, its assessment being an only slightly milder 97.97%). 

The Line Fund algorithm rates the Pies as the team most likely to be successful in line betting this week, rating them as over 70% chances of winning by 7 points or more. This algorithm also rates highly Melbourne's chances of containing its loss to the Blues to 6 goals or less, and the Giants' chances of containing its loss at the hands of the Hawks to less than 4 goals.

ChiPS PREDICTIONS

From ChiPS' viewpoint, difference in team ability is the main contributor to its predicted margins in six of the round's nine contests. In Friday's Richmond v Collingwood game, ability, form and, oddly, home ground advantage (HGA) are all negatives for the home team Tigers, which has meant that ChiPS has predicted about a 7 point Pies win.

In the Sydney v Kangaroos game, the main contributors to ChiPS opinion is the Swans' HGA (+7 points) and the fact that the game is an Interstate clash. (+5.6 points), while in the St Kilda v Adelaide game, the Saints' differential form is significant (+6.7 points) as is its HGA (+16.3 points) and the Interstate status of the clash (+5.6 points). 

ChiPS recommends wagers in only two games this week: a small bet on the Suns at $4.00 and a much larger one on the Saints at $2.30.