2014 - Round 2 Results: Steady Progress

This week only the Head-to-Head Fund took a backward step, unsuccessful in its lone wager and thereby surrendering just under 1c to the TAB bookmaker on a Dees outfit that scored 2 goals and 11 points fewer in the entire game than its opponents registered in the 1st quarter alone.

More than offsetting this loss from the Head-to-Head Fund was the Line Fund's two successful wagers from three, which added just under 1c to its value, and the Margin Fund's two additional successful wagers from eight, which added almost 9c to its value. Combined, these two Funds' results added almost 3c to the value of the Recommended Portfolio, leaving it up by 2c for the round and now 6.4c for the season.

When you consider that the Margin Fund went within 30 seconds of securing a favourable result in the Richmond v Carlton game, and was just a kick away from doing the same in the Fremantle v Gold Coast match, there's good reason to assess this week's results favourably.

TIPSTERS AND PREDICTORS

Four of the Head-to-Head Tipsters (Easily Impressed II, Bookie_9, Combo_7 and Combo_NN_1) all have grounds to feel equally satisfied with their efforts this week having correctly selected the winner in eight of the nine games. As a result, Easily Impressed II now sits at the head of the Leaderboard, its 15 from 18 season-long performance placing it one tip ahead of the rest of the field and a remarkable four tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.

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The All-Tipster average for the Head-to-Head Tipsters was 6.4 this week, while 7 was the most-common, and four the lowest score, recorded by Home Sweet Home.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the three most directly TAB Bookmaker derived, and the RSMP duo, all turned in especially solid performances this week. When paired with their better-than-average Round 1 results, these most-recent figures shuffled the five Predictors into five of the top six places. Combo_7 occupies the remaining spot in the top half-dozen, partly due to its ability to finish nearer the actual score than any other Predictor, a feat its achieved three times already this season.

Another of the Predictors to have been closest to the actual margin three times is Combo_NN_1, but it's also been furthest away on five other occasions and so finds itself languishing mid-pack, over 5 goals behind the leader.

C-Marg, the season's newest Predictor, has even more work to do to regain touch with the leading pack. Despite never being furthest from the final margin in any game, its rarely been close in absolute terms, predicting a margin within two goals of the actual result less than one-quarter of the time. It now lies over 15 goals behind the leader.

C-Marg's sibling Probability Predictor, C-Prob, is faring far better. It lies third on the Leaderboard behind only the two Probability Predictors that are based on the Head-to-Head Fund algorithm and ahead of all three directly Bookmaker-derived Predictors.

MatterOfStats' only other Probability Predictor, the Line Fund algorithm, continues to perform well and still has a net positive probability score.