2014 - Round 2: Not Without Interest
/All three MatterOfStats Funds are active once again this round, and the general wagering tone remains subdued. The Head-to-Head Fund's lone wager is a small one on the Dees, who are priced at $7.50 for their clash with the Eagles. Whilst not as speculative a wager as last round's Giants plunge, this small bet on the Dees doesn't exactly have "collect" written all over it either.
Meantime, the Line Fund has cleared its throat and yelled its support for the Dees as well - though, crucially in its case, conditional on receiving almost seven goals start. Its two other wagers are on the Dons (+18.5) and Port Adelaide (-6.5). Eight SuperMargin wagers complete the round's entertainment.
Together these wagers leave Investors with an interest in seven of the nine contests, the wager-free games both falling on Sunday.
Financially, Investors have most to gain (+2.2c) from a Melbourne victory and most to lose (-0.9c) from a Melbourne loss by 41 points or more.
All other gains are in the +0.6c to +1.6c range, and losses in the -0.3c to -0.6c range. It is, still, very early doors, so we're talking nibbles not bites.
HEAD TO HEAD TIPS AND MARGIN PREDICTIONS
All 28 of the Head-to-Head Tipsters fancy the Swans to topple the Pies, and Freo to emerge victorious over Gold Coast, while Home Sweet Home is the only Tipster preventing unanimity in three other contests where Geelong is heavily favoured over Brisbane, West Coast over Melbourne, and the Roos over the Dogs.
In the Dons v Hawks matchup the Hawks enjoy 20-8 favouritsm amongst the Predictors and, in the Port Adelaide v Adelaide derby, Port enjoys the same level of support. That leaves just two games where there's significant debate: the Tigers v Blues game where the Tigers are favoured 17-11, and the Saints v Giants game where 15 Tipsters have plumped for the Giants, 11 for the Saints, and where Bookie_3 is tipping a draw.
Overall, Home Sweet Home is the Tipster most different from the norm, BKB and Easily Impressed I least different.
The Margin Predictors are unanimous in choosing a winner for six of the round's games, all favouring the Hawks, Swans, Dockers, Cats, Eagles and Roos in their respective clashes. In the Richmond v Carlton game, nine Predictors foresee a Tigers win by amounts ranging from 1 to 20 points, while eight instead envisage a Blues win by between 4 and 11 points. The average margin is for a Tigers win by half a point.
In the two other disputed contests the average margin is also small, suggesting a 1.3 point win by the Giants over the Saints in one game, and a 0.6 point win by Adelaide over Port Adelaide in the other.
C-Marg is the Predictor with margin predictions most different from the norm, though Win_3 and Win_7 are almost as divergent. RSMP_Weighted is most similar to the all-Predictor averages.
PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS
Fremantle is the team assessed by the Head to Head Probability Predictors taken as a whole as being most likely to win this weekend. Its average assessed probability of victory is 91%, with even the most pessimistic Predictor rating them 86% chances. Four other teams are assessed as being 70-75% chances: Geelong (72%), West Coast (75%), the Kangaroos (74%), and Sydney (73%). C-Prob has dragged down the probability assessments for Sydney and for West Coast, which it rates as only 58% and 60% chances respectively.
Not surprisingly then, C-Prob is the Head to Head Probability Predictor most different from the average. Bookie_LPSO is the Predictor least different, though five Predictors have all recorded similar mean absolute differences of around 6.0 to 6.3%.
The Line Fund algorithm rates no team as higher than a 67% chance to prevail in the line market. It's made that assessment about the Roos who it's confident will more than cover the 20.5 points start they're offering. It rates the Dons' chances almost as highly, rating them 66% chances to win, draw or lose by fewer than 19 points.
ChiPS' Tips
We've seen already how, once again this round, ChiPS has its own very different views on some of the contests.
This week its opinions about the Saints, Lions and Dees are sufficiently different from those of the TAB Bookmaker that it would recommend head-to-head wagers on those three teams, even allowing for a 5% point error in its probability assessments, as shown in the following table.
Its enthusiasm for all three teams is partly attributable to the relatively large Home Ground Advantage ChiPS believes they each enjoy: +16 points for the Saints, +10 points for the Dees, and +9 points for Brisbane. The three teams also each enjoy the benefit of playing in their home states against teams playing out of their home states.
In addition to these two manifest advantages, the Saints are also assessed by ChiPS as being, quite simply, superior in ability. It rates the Saints as almost a 4-goal better team than the Giants.
