MAFL 2010 : Round 21 Results

Teams, I suppose, finish last for a reason.

And so it was with the Eagles on Sunday afternoon, who appeared to be oblivious to the importance that most MAFL Investors were placing on the outcome of their clash with the Roos. Going into that game, Investors with the Recommended Portfolio were up by about 1.3% on the round and only needed a win by the Eagles - or, worst case, a loss by 6 points or fewer - to finish the weekend in the black.

But the Eagles couldn't land the result, so the Recommended Portfolio finished down by about 0.5%, leaving that Portfolio down by a smidgeon over 10% on the season, with time very rapidly running out.

MIN#002's Portfolio managed a very small gain, rising by 0.6% to finish the weekend down just over 24% on the season. The MIN#017 Portfolio was not, however, as lucky, and shed almost another 7% this weekend, ending down by over 55% on the season.

Herewith, the latest Dashboard:

Amongst the losses, the Heuristic-Based Fund managed to spin a profit, thereby ensuring that Short-Term Memory I will retain control of it for the final round of the home-and-away season.

Moving next to tipping we find that we've a new leader on the MAFL Tipping Ladder. It's Follow The Streak, whose 6 from 8 took it to 110 from 168 (66%) for the season, leaving it one tip ahead of ELO, Silhouette, Easily Impressed II and Short-Term Memory II. The best performances came from Easily-Impressed I and Short-Term Memory I, each of which picked 7 of the 8 winners. BKB managed only 5 and still languishes 4 tips from the leader.

On average, the MAFL Tippers scored 5.15 correct tips each.

Four pairs of teams changed positions this week on the MARS Rating table: Hawthorn and Carlton swapped 5th and 6th, Adelaide and Fremantle swapped 8th and 9th, the Roos and Melbourne swapped 10th and 11th, and Port and Essendon swapped 13th and 14th. This leaves Adelaide in 8th on MARS with a rating of around 1,000, despite lying 12th on the competition ladder. This would suggest that they've had, in hindsight, a relatively tough draw.

Fremantle, meantime, sit 6th on the competition ladder, but 9th on MARS Ratings.

For the sixth successive round Mean Absolute Prediction Errors (MAPEs) generally rose. BKB still holds the lead on this metric and is now on 30.5 points per game, while LAMP (30.95) has reclaimed 2nd spot from ELO (31.06).

ELO and HAMP's Median APEs both rose this week. LAMP retained 1st position on 26.5 points, a whole point ahead of BKB and HAMP who now share 2nd.

HELP predicted just 3 from 8 line results this week, and was comprehensively out-tipped by the Super Smart Model, which snagged 7 from 8 (along with 6 from 8 on head-to-head tipping).

The Bookie Probability Model lost its only wager, which was 5% on Carlton. That leaves it up, notionally, by only 133% on the season. If only ...