MAFL 2010 : Round 22

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So we've reached the end of the home-and-away season with much still to do if Investors are to finish the season showing a nett gain. A perfect set of results this weekend would drag the Recommended Portfolio narrowly into profit, but similar good fortune would not be enough to do the same for MIN#002 or MIN#017; they'll also need favourable results throughout the final series to finish ahead.

This week, the Recommended Portfolio has 25 bets and action in seven of the eight games, the Hawks v Pies game being the only game in which no money will change ownership. Most wagering activity has come from the always-active New Heritage Fund, whose six bets this week represent just over one half of the Fund. The weighted average price for these wagers is $1.42, the largest is 13.5% on the Cats at $1.01 (yes, $1.01), and the longest-priced is 0.7% on Adelaide at $2.65.

Prudence is next most active having ventured six wagers of its own for 21.5% of its Fund. The weighted average price for these bets is $1.49 and the two largest wagers are 5.8% on Geelong at $1.01 and 5.8% on the Dogs at $1.20. Its longest-priced wager is also on Adelaide at $2.65 and is for 1.7% of the Fund.

ELO has made five wagers, though it had to wait until after 5:30pm on Thursday to make them since TAB Sportsbet only posted line markets around then, presumably because their bookie was awaiting the team announcements. The unusual timing for the posting of these markets -and the fact that I've had the day in bed drifting in and out of sleep on account of a stomach bug - meant that I missed the initial prices on offer and so only secured the Dogs at $1.85 rather than $1.90. Amongst ELO's five wagers is one on the Cats offering 72.5 points start, which is amongst the largest starts I've ever seen on AFL line betting. The risk of the Cats leading by, say, 10 or 11 goals late in the match and then cruising into the final siren looms large.

Shadow has made three wagers - its last three for the season as it will not trade during the Finals - and these total 15% of the Fund and carry a weighted average price of $1.75. The longest-priced wager is for 5% on Brisbane at $3.05. Hope also has three wagers, its trio totalling about 11% of the Fund and carrying a weighted average price of $2.23, this average inflated by its largest and longest-priced wager of 5.2% on Adelaide at $2.65.

The Heuristic-Based Fund, also in its last week of trading, is the quietest Fund this week, making just 2 wagers for 10% of the Fund at a weighted average price of just $1.11. Its longest-priced wager is for 5% on the Dogs at $1.20.

Hope's three wagers represent MIN#002's weekend action, and New Heritage's six are MIN#017's.

Here's the detail:

For the Recommended Portfolio, the Melbourne v Roos game offers maximum upside (+3.2%), the Geelong v West Coast game carries maximum downside (-5.9%), and the Dogs v Essendon game has the largest swing between best- and worst-possible results (7.1%).

MIN#002 would gain most from a Brisbane victory over the Swans (+10.3%).

MIN#017 will see his best result if Melbourne defeat the Roos (+6.0%), his worst result if Geelong are beaten by the Eagles in what would be the shock of the season (-13.5%), and faces the largest swing between possible results of 14.7% on the Richmond v Port game.

Here's the Ready Reckoner:

There's unanimity amongst the MAFL Tipsters for only one game this weekend, though in three more games there's only token dissent from one or two tipsters. Across the eight contests the average number of dissenting MAFL tipsters per game is a low 3.1.

Here are the details:

  • Fremantle are 9-6 favourites over Carlton. The Margin Tippers are 4-1 in support of Freo, with ELO the only dissenter. It tips the Blues to win by just 2 points, making this one of its Games of the Round. Predicted victory margins range from Carlton by 2 to Fremantle by 14 points. The five best-performed MAFL Tipsters - Easily Impressed II, Follow The Streak, ELO, Silhouette and Short-Term Memory II) favour a Blues victory by 3-2.
  • Geelong are the week's only unanimous favourites. They play the Eagles and are expected by the Margin Tippers to win by between 16 and 73 points.
  • Collingwood are 13-2 favourites over Hawthorn, and the MAFL Tipsters are unanimous in tipping the Pies. They predict victory margins for them ranging from just 6 to 18 points, however, so their confidence is not all that great. The Top MAFL tipsters are also unanimous in selecting the Pies.
  • St Kilda are 14-1 favourites over Adelaide. The Margin Tippers all tip St Kilda, and do so by margins of between 4 and 15.5 points. Chi tips St Kilda by just 4 points, making this his Game of the Round. The Top MAFL tipsters are also unanimous in their support of the Saints.
  • Sydney are 11-4 favourites over the Lions, with the Margin Tippers unanimously tipping the Swans by margins between 6 and 20 points. The Top 5 tipsters also favour Sydney, but only by 3-2.
  • The Dogs are 14-1 favourites over Essendon, and are unanimously tipped by the Margin Tippers, with predicted margins of between 16 and 53 points. The Top tipsters are also unanimously predicting a Dogs victory.
  • Port are 10-5 favourites over the Tigers, though 4 of the 5 tipsters siding with the Tigers are amongst the Margin Tippers. ELO is the holdout, tipping Port by 2 points, making this its second and final Game of the Round. Predicted margins for this game range from Port by 2 to Richmond by 16 points. The Top 5 tipsters unanimously predict a Port victory.
  • The Roos are 9-6 favourites over Melbourne. The Margin Tippers favour the Dees 3-2, with HAMP (Roos by 3), LAMP (Dees by 4) and BKB all having this as their Game of the Round. Predicted margins range from the Roos by 3 to Melbourne by 8. The Top 5 MAFL Tipsters favour the Dees 3-2.

The Super Smart Model agrees with only three of the five ELO wagers this week, disagreeing that the Cats will cover the 72.5 point spread and that the Dogs will cover their 28.5 points spread. Indeed, ELO's wager on the Cats was a near thing - had the Cats been giving another 1 point start ELO would have agreed with SSM and felt that the start was too great.

Here's SSM's view of the entire round:

SSM's head-to-head tips are for the eight favourites this week, though it predicts that six of these favourites will prevail by 2 goals or less.

The Bookie Probability Model (BPM) is convinced that the TAB Sportsbet bookie is offering value on three home teams this week and so recommends a 4.2% wager on the Crows, an 11.1% wager on Brisbane, and a startling 22.4% wager on the Dogs. BPM's probability estimates are heavily influenced by MARS Ratings, so this large suggested wager on the Dogs is a consequence of the disparity between the bookie's and MARS' view of the Dogs overall quality, which is an issue we've addressed in earlier blogs.

Lastly, the HELP line predictions, for what they're worth: