MatterOfStats 2024 : Team Dashboard for Round 10
/The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:
Percent of Quarters Won (+0.85)
Own Goals per Game (+0.79)
Q3 Performances (+0.78)
Own Points per Game (+0.76)
Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.75)
Q1 Performances (+0.72)
Least highly correlated are:
Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.23)
Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.30)
Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.42)
Opponent Goals per Game (+0.45)
Opponent Points per Game (+0.46)
Q2 Performances (+0.49)
For the first time in as long as I can remember, the MoS Win Production Function rankings are not highly correlated with actual ladder position, and that is largely because the scoring metrics for Essendon, Port Adelaide and Collingwood don’t support their relatively high competition ladder rankings, and the scoring metrics for Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions don’t support their relatively low competition ladder rankings.
A review of this table and the detailed Team Dashboard below provides more insight:
Essendon have only the 11th-highest percentage
Port Adelaide are 16th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 13th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
Collingwood are 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
Western Bulldogs are 3rd on Own Scoring Shot generation and 3rd on Opponent Scoring Shot generation
Brisbane Lions are 7th on Own Scoring Shot generation and 1st on Opponent Scoring Shot generation
The larger Team Dashboard also reveals that:
Adelaide’s opponents have converted at only 44%, and Sydney’s at 45%
Sydney have won 30 quarters this season, which is 6 more than any other team
North Melbourne have won only 6 quarters this season (and drawn none)
Geelong have won only 50% of Q2s and 55% of Q4s.
Essendon have generated fewer scoring shots than their opponents have in Q1s and Q2s, and has a sub-100 percentage for Q2s.
Port Adelaide have a sub-100 percentage for Q3s.
Hawthorn have outscored their opponents in Q2s, but been outscored by their opponents in every other quarter
Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter
The only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter are Sydney and Western Bulldogs.
Brisbane Lions have scored 58% of their points in 1st halfs and conceded 58% in 2nd halfs. They’ve converted at only 37% in Q3s
Melbourne have scored 60% of their points in 2nd halfs