2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 15

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This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99.9% chances of Top 4; 95% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Carlton: 98% chances of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Collingwood, and Essendon: 70-85% chances of being finalists; 30-45% chances of Top 4; 0.2-0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and GWS: 50-60% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, and Hawthorn: 25-35% chance of being finalists; 4-7% chance of Top 4; no or tiny chance of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and Adelaide: 0.5-2% chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  7. West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: tiny to no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

There were only a few large movements in teams’ Final chances this week, with the Lions’ (22% points) and Dockers’ (14% points) Finals chances rising most substantially, and Power’s (21% points) and the Cats’ (14% points) chances falling most substantially.

There are still 9 teams with a 50% or better chance of playing Finals (and four more with a 25% or better shot), and six teams with a near 30% or higher chance of finishing Top 4.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the latest simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

Overall uncertainty fell significantly this week, with the 9 least certain teams now effectively fighting for between about 10 and 12 ladder positions, and the 8 least certain ladder positions having 10 to 11.5 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are Sydney, North Melbourne, West Coast, Richmond, Carlton, and Adelaide, while on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions are 1st, 2nd, and 15th to 18th.

The ladder positions with the most uncertainty remain those in the middle of the table, from about 3rd to 13th and especially those from 5th to 12th.

We also see that the average team is still effectively competing for about 7.5 positions, and the average ladder position has about 7.4 teams competing for it.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

Based on the simulations, we can say that:

  • For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 16% had 12 wins (up 4% points), 50% had 13 wins (down 1% point), and 17.5% had 12.5 wins (also, virtually none had 11 wins, and 10.5% had 13.5 wins).

  • For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 32.5% had 15 wins (down 6.5% points), 5% had 16 wins (down 1% point), and 15.5% had 15.5 wins (also, 18% had 14 wins, and 25.5% had 14.5 wins).

Looked at another way:

  • For teams finishing win 11 wins: 0% made Finals (no change)

  • For teams finishing win 12 wins: 12% made Finals (up 3% points)

  • For teams finishing win 13 wins: 74.5% made Finals (up 5.5% points)

  • For teams finishing win 14 wins: 99.5% made Finals and 16.5% finished Top 4 (up 2.5% points)

  • For teams finishing win 15 wins: 76.5% finished Top 4 (up 0.5% points)

  • For teams finishing win 16 wins: 99.5% finished Top 4 (up 0.5% points)

Those probabilities vary by team, of course. Let’s have another look at them.

We see that the Dogs, Eagles, Lions, and Crows are most likely to play Finals with 12 wins, although an unlikely achievement for all but the Dogs. The Dogs, Lions, and Crows are also most likely to play Finals with 13 wins. The Power, Crows, and Dees are most likely to need at least 13.5 wins to play Finals.

It’s a somewhat similar story for finishing Top 4, with the Dogs most likely to do it with fewest wins, and the Power, Crows, and Dees amongst the teams most likely to need a larger number of wins.

Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis for all 18 ladder positions.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s still about a 2-in-5 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (it’s down by about 1.5% points on last week)

  • There’s now only about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down by about 4.5% points on last week)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-18 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down by about 1.5% points on last week)

FINALS CHANCES

Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities.

A quick look at the AFL Futures markets would suggest that there might be a bit of value

IN THE MAKE FINALS MARKET ON

Lions and Dogs

IN THE MISS FINALS MARKET ON

Giants and Power

IN THE FLAG MARKET ON

Lions, Dockers, Dogs, and Suns.

A continued reminder that I do not bet on these Futures markets.