2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 14

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This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney: 99.99% chances of being finalists; 99.5% chances of Top 4; 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Carlton: 90-95% chances of being finalists; 70% chances of Top 4; 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, and Brisbane Lions: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 0.2-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and Gold Coast: 40-55% chances of being finalists; 12-16% chances of Top 4; 0.1-0.2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn: 25% chance of being finalists; 4% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and Adelaide: 0.5-2% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  7. West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

There were only a few large movements in teams’ Final chances this week, with the Dogs’ Finals chances rising most substantially (15% points), and the Dockers’ chances falling most substantially (-13% points).

There are still 9 teams with a 50% or better chance of playing Finals (and three more with a 40% or better shot), and nine teams with a near 25% or higher chance of finishing Top 4.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the latest simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

Overall uncertainty was unchanged this week, with the 10 least certain teams now effectively fighting for between about 11 and 12.5 ladder positions, and the 9 least certain ladder positions having 11 to 12 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are Sydney, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast, and now Adelaide, while on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions are 1st, 18th, 17th, 16th, and now 15th.

The ladder positions with the most uncertainty remain those in the middle of the table, from about 3rd to 13th and especially those from 7th to 11th.

We also see that the average team is still effectively competing for about 8.3 positions, and the average ladder position has about 8.1 teams competing for it.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

Based on the simulations, we can say that:

  • For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 12% had 12 wins (down 2%), 51% had 13 wins (up 2%), and 16% had 12.5 wins (also, virtually none had 11 wins, and 16% had 12.5 wins).

  • For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 39% had 15 wins (no change), 6% had 16 wins (down 3%), and 11% had 15.5 wins (also, 20% had 14 wins, and 21% had 14.5 wins).

Looked at another way:

  • For teams finishing win 11 wins: 0% made Finals (no change)

  • For teams finishing win 12 wins: 9% made Finals (down 2%)

  • For teams finishing win 13 wins: 69% made Finals (down 3%)

  • For teams finishing win 14 wins: 99% made Finals and 14% finished Top 4 (up 4%)

  • For teams finishing win 15 wins: 76% finished Top 4 (up 4%)

  • For teams finishing win 16 wins: 99% finished Top 4 (no change)

Those probabilities vary by team, of course. Let’s have a look at them.

Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis for all 18 ladder positions.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s still about a 2-in-5 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (it’s up by about 2% on last week)

  • There’s now slightly more than a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up by about 2% on last week)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-14 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down by about 4% on last week)

FINALS CHANCES

Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities.

A quick look at the AFL Futures markets would suggest that there might be a bit of value

IN THE MAKE FINALS MARKET ON

Lions, Dogs, and Dees

IN THE MISS FINALS MARKET ON

GWS (and Cats and Power, but only barely)

IN THE FLAG MARKET ON

Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions (and, to a lesser extent, Essendon)

A reminder that I do not bet on these Futures markets, however.