2020 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 16

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The latest simulation results for the 2020 home-and-away season appear below.

For details about the methodologies being used, see this post from earlier in the season.

LADDER FINISHES

Using the Standard Methodolgy (or, let’s be honest, basic maths), Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond, West Coast, and St Kilda are all essentially certainties for playing Finals. Collingwood are 9 chances in 10, Western Bulldogs about 5 in 9, GWS 3 in 10, and Melbourne 1 in 4.

St Kilda and Western Buldogs both saw their final 8 chances rise by over 10% points this week, while GWS and Melbourne (again) saw theirs fall by over 10% points.

Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Geelong are all now virtual certainties for a spot in the Top 4, Richmond about 7 in 10 chances, and West Coast about 3 in 10.

For Minor Premier we have Port Adelaide still about 1 chance in 2, Brisbane Lions now 2 in 5, and Geelong 1 in 8.

(Note that, despite the Lions having slightly higher Expected Wins than Port Adelaide, the latter are assessed as being more likely to win the Minor Premiership because of their superior percentage).

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

Based on the results from the Standand Methodology, most teams are now effectively competing for between 3 and 5 ladder positions, down about 1 spot on last week.

All teams except Adelaide are now effectively competing for fewer ladder positions, but most of all St Kilda (down 1.4 spots to 4.2), and Sydney (down 1.3 spots to 2.9).

Melbourne, GWS, and Western Bulldogs now have least certainty about their final ladder positions, and Brisbane Lions, North Melbourne, and Adelaide most certainty.

Similarly, there are about 3 to 5 teams effectively competing for most of the ladder positions, the exceptions being the Top 1 and Bottom 3 places.

Most ladder positions now have fewer teams effectively competing for them, but the largest declines came for 10th (1.6 fewer teams), 6th (1.5 fewer teams), and 13th (1.3 fewer). Uncertainty grew only for 18th and only by a very small amount.

The ladder positions with the most teams effectively vying for them are now 8th and 9th.

DEPENDENCE

Next, let’s look at the dependence charts (whose interpretation I explained in this earlier blog).

We see this week that the finals chances of Western Bulldogs and GWS show fairly high levels of dependence, as well as Melbourne and GWS, and Melbourne and Western Bulldogs. There is also some non-trivial level of dependence between Collingwood’s chances and those of the Western Bulldogs and GWS.

Looking at the Top 4, we see the main dependency is still between Richmond and West Coast,

WINS AND FINAL RANK

Next, a look at what the Standard Method simulations reveal about the relationship between the number of wins a team records in the home-and-away season simulations, and where they finish on the ladder.

We see that Carlton still often misses out when it records 9 wins. GWS, St Kilda, Melbourne and Western Bulldogs also sometimes miss with 9 wins, though less often.

GAME IMPORTANCE

Lastly, let’s look at how the remaining games are assessed in terms of their influence on the composition of the Finalists.

According to the latest simulations using the Standard Methodology, it’s now the Round 17 Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs that is expected to have the most impact on the final Top 8, just ahead of the previously top game of GWS v Melbourne.

Turning next, and lastly, to impacts on the Top 4, we see that it’s still the Saints v Eagles, and Cats v Tigers games from Round 17 that are expected to have the most impact.