2020 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 15
/The latest simulation results for the 2020 home-and-away season appear below.
For details about the methodologies being used, see this post from earlier in the season.
LADDER FINISHES
Using the Standard Methodolgy, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond, and West Coast are all now essentially certainties for playing Finals. St Kilda and Collingwood are now both about 80% chances, GWS 60% chances, Melbourne just under 50% chances, and Western Bulldogs almost 30% chances.
Only GWS saw their final 8 chances rise by over 10% points this week, while Melbourne and Carlton saw theirs fall by over 10% points.
Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Geelong are all now rated about 9 in 10 or better chances for a spot in the Top 4, Richmond about 13 in 20, and West Coast about 1 in 2.
For Minor Premier we have Port Adelaide still about 1 chance in 2, Brisbane Lions 1 in 3, and Geelong 1 in 7.
(Note that, despite the Lions having slightly higher Expected Wins than Port Adelaide, the latter are assessed as being more likely to win the Minor Premiership because of their superior percentage).
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
Based on the results from the Standand Methodology, most teams are now effectively competing for between 4 and 6 ladder positions, down about 0.5 to 1 spots on last week.
Most teams are now effectively competing for fewer ladder positions, but most of all West Coast (down 1.7 spots), Carlton (1.5), and Collingwood (1.4).
Sydney, Gold Coast, Geelong, Fremantle, and Adelaide were the exceptions, with each of them becoming slightly less certain about their final ladder positions.
GWS, Melbourne and St Kilda now have least certainty about their final ladder positions, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Adelaide most certainty.
Similarly, there are about 4 to 6 teams effectively competing for most of the ladder positions, the exceptions being the Top 1 and Bottom 2 places.
Most ladder positions now have fewer teams effectively competing for them, but the largest declines came for 5th (1.7 fewer teams), and 7th, 8th and 11th (1.2 fewer). Uncertainty grew for 1st, 10th, 14th, 16th, and 18th.
The ladder positions with the most teams effectively vying for them are now 8th, 9th, and 10th.
DEPENDENCE
Next, let’s look at the dependence charts (whose interpretation I explained in last week’s blog).
We see this week that the finals chances of Melbourne and GWS are fairly highly dependent, and that there is some meaningful dependence in the chances of Collingwood and Western Bulldogs, Melbourne and Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda and Western Bulldogs.
Looking at the Top 4, we see the main dependency is still between Richmond and West Coast,
WINS AND FINAL RANK
Next, a look at what the Standard Method simulations reveal about the relationship between the number of wins a team records in the home-and-away season simulations, and where they finish on the ladder.
We see that Carlton often misses out when it records 9 wins, as do GWS and Western Bulldogs, but that St Kilda and Melbourne less often miss out with 9 wins.
No-one makes Finals with only 8 or 8.5 wins.
GAME IMPORTANCE
Lastly, let’s look at the games that are assessed as being most likely to influence the composition of the Finalists.
According to the latest simulations using the Standard Methodology, it’s now the Round 17 GWS v Melbourne game that is expected to have the most impact on the final Top 8, just ahead of the previously top game of St Kilda v GWS.
Among the Top 10 games, GWS, Melbourne, and Western Bulldogs appear in 3 each.
Turning next, and lastly, to impacts on the Top 4, we see that it’s still two games from Round 17 that are expected to have the most impact.
Among the Top 10 games, Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and West Coast appear in 3 each, and Richmond and Sydney in 2 each.
