2020 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 12
/It’s been a while - ten rounds, in fact - since last we looked at some simulations of the home-and-away season. Today, with the remainder of the schedule now largely determined, save for the venuing in Round 18, we’'ll return to that task.
For details about the methodologies being used here, see this post from earlier in the season. For now, we’ll assume that all Round 18 games are played at Carrara though, in truth, I suspect that matters little.
LADDER FINISHES
Using the Standard Methodolgy, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Geelong, West Coast, and Richmond are all now assessed as having better than 9 in 10 chances of playing Finals, St Kilda as having only slightly less chance than that, and Melbourne as about 3 chances in 4. Collingwood are roughly 1 in 2 chances, and GWS, Western Bulldogs, and Carlton all about 1 in 4.
Port Adelaide are better than 9 in 10 chances for a spot in the Top 4, Brisbane Lions about 17 chances in 20, and Geelong 8 chances in 10. West Coast are almost 3 chances in 5, Richmond 2 in 5, and St Kilda 1 in 4.
For Minor Premier we have Port Adelaide about 9 chances in 20, Brisbane Lions 1 in 4, and Geelong 1 in 5.
Over 11 Expected Wins now separate 1st from last.
The results for the Heretical Methodology (in which, instead of increasing the uncertainty about team ratings the further away is the contest, we update team ratings within a simulation based on the simulated outcomes) appear below.
Under this methodology there is some minor re-ordering of teams based on Expected Wins (and bear in mind that we have only 2,500 replicates here compared to 50,000 for the Standard Methodology), a wider range of Expected Wins, but broadly similar percentages associated with each team for given ladder finishes.
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
Based on the results from the Standand Methodology, most teams are still effectively competing for between 7 and 9 ladder positions, though the Lions, Swans and Cats are effectively competing for only 5 or 6, Port Adelaide for 3 or 4, and Adelaide just 1.
Similarly, there are 7 to 9 teams competing for most of the ladder positions, the exceptions being the Top and Bottom 3 places.
Last place is effectively decided, second-last a competition between 3 teams, and third-last between 5 teams.
Three teams are effectively competing for the Minor Premiership, 5 for second place, and 6 teams for third place.
(As always, click on the image to access a larger version of it.)
The results from the Heretical Methodology are, again, broadly similar to those from the Standard Methodology. They appear in the table at left.
We see that, still, most teams are effectively competing for between 7 and 9 ladder positions, with Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Adelaide the exceptions, but also that most teams are effectively competing for a very slightly smaller number of positions.
We also still see that there are 7 to 9 teams effectively competing for most ladder positions, with 1st to 3rd and 16th to 18th the exceptions, and that most positions have slightly fewer teams effectively competing for them under the Heretical Methodology than they do under the Standard Methodology.
It’s actually quite surprising to me just how similar are the results for the two methodologies.
GAME IMPORTANCE
Lastly, let’s look at the games that are assessed as being most likely to influence the composition of the Finalists.
According to the latest simulations using the Standard Methodology, it’s the Round 14 Carlton v Collingwood game that will have the most impact, ahead of the Round 17 Collingwood v Gold Coast game, and the Round 18 Collingwood v Port Adelaide game.
Among the Top 25 games, Carlton, GWS and Melbourne appear in 6 games, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs in 5, and Fremantle and St Kilda in 3 each. Richmond is the only team not to appear in any of the games.
It’s a different story, though, if we focus on the games most likely to affect the final Top 4.
Richmond now appear in both of the Top 2 games, and in 5 of the Top 25.
Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, and St Kilda also appear in 5 games each, West Coast in 6, and Essendon and Geelong in 4 each.
Port Adelaide is the only team not to appear in any of the Top 25 games.
The equivalent tables for the Heretical Methodology appear below and, again, are very similar to those for the Standard Methodology, although the Weighted Average Importance figures tend to be a little higher.
Nine of Top 10 games shown here also appear in the Top 10 for the Standard Methodology.
If we look instead at the Top 25 games in terms of their expected impact on the final Top 4, we also find that nine of Top 10 games based on the Heretical Methodology also appear in the Top 10 for the Standard Methodology, and also that the absolute values of Weighted Average Importance tend to be a little higher.
