2020 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 13
/The latest simulation results for the 2020 home-and-away season appear below.
For details about the methodologies being used, see this post from earlier in the season.
LADDER FINISHES
Using the Standard Methodolgy, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Geelong, West Coast, and Richmond are all now assessed as having 98% or better chances of playing Finals, St Kilda as having about an 85% chance, and Collingwood about a 60% chance.
The Western Bulldogs and Carlton saw their final 8 chances rise by over 10% points, while Melbourne and GWS saw theirs fall by over 10% points.
Port Adelaide and Brisbane Lions are now both rated better than 9 in 10 chances for a spot in the Top 4, Geelong still about 8 chances in 10, West Coast about 3 chances in 5, and Richmond 1 in 2. St Kilda’s and Melbourne’s Top 4 chances fell by over 10% points this week, while Richmond’s rose by over 10% points.
For Minor Premier we have Port Adelaide now about 1 chance in 2, Brisbane Lions 1 in 4, and Geelong 1 in 8.
Almost 12 Expected Wins now separate 1st from last.
The results for the Heretical Methodology (in which, instead of increasing the uncertainty about team ratings the further away is the contest, we update team ratings within a simulation based on the simulated outcomes) appear below.
They, again, tell a fairly similar story.
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
Based on the results from the Standand Methodology, most teams are now effectively competing for between 6 and 8 ladder positions, down about 1 spot on last week.
Every team is now effectively competing for fewer ladder positions, but most of all Essendon (down 1.8 spots), Gold Coast (down 1.7 spots), and GWS (down 1.6 spots)
Similarly, there are 6 to 8 teams competing for most of the ladder positions, the exceptions still being the Top and Bottom 3 places.
Every ladder position now has fewer teams effectively competing for it, but the largest declines came for 13th (1.9 fewer teams), and 8th, 9th, 12th and 14th (1.5 fewer teams).
GAME IMPORTANCE
Lastly, let’s look at the games that are assessed as being most likely to influence the composition of the Finalists.
According to the latest simulations using the Standard Methodology, it’s still the Round 14 Carlton v Collingwood game that will have the most impact.
Among the Top 25 games, Carlton, GWS, and Melbourne appear in 5 games each , and Collingwood, St Kilda, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs in 4 each. Richmond remain the only team not to appear in any of the Top 25 games.
They do, however, appear in the game expected to have the most impact on the Top 4, and in three more of the Top 25.
Only West Coast appears in more games (5), while Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide, and St Kilda also appear in 4 each.
No team fails to appear in any of the Top 25 games.
