AFLW 2022 Spring Edition - Round 1 - Results
/A reasonable start to the season for WoSHBODS, though not on the accuracy front where it managed just 4.5 from 9.
A 22.7 points per game MAE is a little high, but somewhat inflated by the need to make forecasts for teams making their first appearance in the competition. WoSHBODS makes quite large ratings adjustments in the early rounds of a season, so we might hope to see some more precise forecasts in the second round.
The Ranking on Team Metrics table appears below, and includes three performance columns for quarters 2 through 4 for which no ranking can yet be established because some teams have infinite percentages for those quarters.
One thing that is apparent so far is that success has been more about scoring shot generation and concession than it has been about scoring shot conversion.
Lastly, here is the full Team Dashboard, which also is affected by teams’ scoring or conceding zero points in some quarters. It includes a bespoke Win Production Function that has been determined by modelling the results for previous seasons, which has yielded the following equation for expected wins.
