AFLW 2022 Spring Edition - Round 1

Last year I started modelling AFLW, using much the same approach as I’ve used for the men’s game for some time, which includes Elo-style team ratings that allow for forecasts of team scores, game totals, game margins, and victory probability estimates.

Previously, I’ve posted these forecasts only on Twitter, For the upcoming season, I’m going to post them here, too.

The underlying model I’ve built for the purpose is a version of MoSHBODS, which I’ve recalibrated based on the history of the AFLW. That model is called WoSHBODS, and it has produced the following forecasts for Round 1 of the new season.

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