2025 - Round 3 Results - Basking in the Glow
/Almost as if Lady Stochastos reads this blog, in response to my lamentations last week, she went out of her way to smile on me this week.
The first sign of this is that MoSHPlay tipped all 8 winners this week, and was the only Head-to-Head Tipster to do so, although seven successes for Bookie Knows Best and a relatively low incidence of contrarianism meant that another of the MoS trio, as well as the RSMP twins, all scored seven from eight.
Most others scored six, with the exception of Home Sweet Home, who scored only five.
All of that left MoSHPlay one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Best and RSMP_Weighted at the head of the Leaderboard.
Margin prediction was far easier this week, but particularly so for MoSHPlay_Marg, whose mean average error (MAE) of 17 points per game was almost 2.5 points per game better than the next best, which was its muse, MoSHBODS_Marg. The all-Predictor average was just 20.5 points per game, and this was dragged up by MoSSBODS_Marg’s MAE of 23.1 points per game.
ENS_Linear now heads the table, but it is less than a point ahead of RSMP_Weighted. The top 8 Predictors are all within roughly two goals of one another.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below.
Log probability scores were all positive, and at the highest levels of the season for all Predictors this week. Narrowly best was MoSSBODS_Prob, and the MoS trio all performed better than the bookmaker three.
MoSHBODS_Prob still heads the Leaderboard, MoSHPlay_Prob retains 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Prob retains 3rd.
WAGERING
The Head-to-Head and Line Funds both returned profits this week, and those were large enough to offset the losses from the Overs/Unders Fund, which went 0 and 2.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished up by just over 4c, which makes it now up by 14c on the season, that from a 39% ROI on a 0.4 turn.
