2024 - Team Ratings After Round 6

/

When ratings are compressed, one obvious possibility is dramatic changes in team rankings, and that is indeed what we’ve seen this week on both MoS Team Rating Systems. All but four teams moved places on MoSSBODS, 10 of them by more than a single spot, and all but five teams moved places on MoSHBODS, nine of them by more than a single spot.

Some of the most dramatic moves came at the top of the leaderboards, with Carlton climbing five spots to take 1st on MoSSBODS and climbing four spots to take 2nd on MoSHBODS, while Collingwood rose seven spots on MoSSBODS into 2nd, and four spots on MoSHBODS into 5th.

At the end of it all the MoS twins agree about which teams are in the Top 6 but about none of their exact ranking.

Ans, on both Systems, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.5 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 16.5 points. Chances are that we’ll see more upheaval in the weeks to come.

Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9904 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.43 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Blues, and Swans, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Blues, and Power. On defence both Systems now have a Top 3 of Dees, Lions, and Cats.

MoSSBODS now has 9 teams rated as above average as does MoSHBODS. Also, MoSSBODS has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has only 10 teams so rated.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.

We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 6.

As you can see, there are no standout teams so far this season.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 5 are rated negatively on both (down 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.53, which is a little lower than last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only 9 teams this week, leaving Geelong in 1st and Melbourne in 2nd, but elevating Sydney into 3rd.

The only team other than Sydney that moved by more a single spot was Port Adelaide, who fell two more spots this week into 7th.

As we saw in the MoS Rating Systems, there remains considerable Rating compression on MARS, with under 11 Rating Points separating 1st from 9th. Previous analyses have suggested that a MARS Rating Point is equivalent to roughly 0.75 points, so these gaps equate to about 8 points.

There are now only 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Adelaide and St Kilda now rated just below 1,000.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon and maybe Port Adelaide and Sydney

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Brisbane Lions and maybe Collingwood

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 11, ahead of MARS with 10, and MoSHBODS with ony 1.

MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Sydney, Carlton, and Collingwood.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 7 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS only about 4, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 6 teams.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Collingwood (7 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but that there are only five teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.

There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: North Melbourne, St Kilda, and Western Bulldogs.