2024 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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With the Lions and Dogs both losing this week despite registering more scoring shots than their respective opponents, and the Swans winning despite registering fewer scoring shots than their opponents, the extent to which you’re likely to agree with the latest MoS Team Ratings is going to heavily depend on the extent to which you agree with analyses that show scoring shot conversion is largely, though not entirely, random.

Both MoS Systems, given their respective in silico philosophies, thought the Dogs did enough to retain top spot, albeit after a Rating decline, while MoSSBODS was happy to keep the Lions in 2nd, but MoSHBODS dropped them to 3rd in favour of Port Adelaide.

Altogether MoSSBODS reranked nine teams this week and MoSHBODS 13. On MoSSBODS, five of those nine teams moved multiple spots, with Hawthorn climbing four spots, and Geelong and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling six spots, and Fremantle two. Five teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with GWS climbing three spots, Geelong, Collingwood and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling seven.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are now separated by only 7.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 26 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 15th are separated by only 25 points.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9893 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.64 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Power, and MoSHBODS now with the same. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Power, and Hawks, while MoSHBODS has Power, Hawks, and Dogs.

MoSSBODS now has nine teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS still has 10. Also, MoSSBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has only 9 so rated.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 8.6 scoring shots (about 31 points) and defensive ratings a range of just 7.9 scoring shots (about 29 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 27 points and defensive ratings a range of about 28 points.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.

We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 22 (assuming they had one in their respective home and away season).

Wetern Bulldogs remain close to having a Rating in the top 10% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final, and no other team is in the top 50%.

On MoSSBODS, only 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 2), 3 are rated negatively on both (down 1), four are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 3), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.69, which is down considerably on last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 12 teams this week, including lifting Sydney into 2nd above Western Bulldogs, but leaving Brisbane Lions in 1st.

Below them, GWS rose 3 spots into 4th, and Geelong, Hawthorn, and Adelaide rose 2 spots. As well, Carlton fell 5 spots into 9th, and Fremantle rose 2 spots into 8th.

Just under 24 Rating Points now separates 2nd from 12th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 19 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 22 last season, the gap between 2nd and 12th was just under 30 Rating Points, or roughly 24 points.

There are now 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda not that far below 1,000 themselves.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Sydney

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and Adelaide

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 14, ahead of MoSHBODS with 5, and MoSSBODS with just 4.

MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne, and, especially, Sydney.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 2 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 3, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 9.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Sydney has the widest range of rankings at seven spots, and that there are six other teams where the rankings span more than two spots.

There is now only one team that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne.