2024 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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MoSSBODS reranked only eight teams this week, and MoSHBODS only four, with neither of them touching their in-common Top 4s of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Western Bulldogs.

Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Essendon down 2, and Melbourne up 2), while four moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS (Essendon down 3, GWS down 2, Melbourne up 2, and Adelaide up 3.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th separated are now separated by just 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 11.6 points. It’s outrageous.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9932 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.72 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Swans, Lions, and Blues, with MoSHBODS this week switching Carlton into 2nd above the Lions. On defence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dees, Swans, and Dockers, while MoSHBODS has the order as Swans, Dockers, and Dees.

MoSSBODS still has nine teams rated as above average on offence, as does MoSHBODS. Also, MoSSBODS now has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has only 10 so rated.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS span a range of 9.1 scoring shots (about 33 points) and defensive ratings a range of just 6.6 scoring shots (about 24 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 30.5 points and defensive ratings a range of 23.5 points. Offensive abilities therefore seem to span a greater range than defensive abilities across the 18 teams this season. Somewhat bearing that out is the fact that the teams’ points for values span a range of 672 points (and have an SD of 184 points) whilst their points against span a range of just 630 points (and have an SD of 165 points).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.

We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 18 (assuming they had one in their home and away season).

Sydney - now quite comfortably - remains the only team with a Rating in the top 50% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final, and is not far away from breaking into the top decile.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 3 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.63, which is down a little on last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 11 teams this week, but left the Top 4 unchanged as Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Geelong.

Below them, Hawthorn rose 2 spots, and Fremantle and St Kilda fell 2 spots. No other teams moved by more than a single spot.

Just pver 18 Rating Points now separates 2nd from 11th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of just under 2-and-a-half goals.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 17 last season, the gap between 2nd and 11th was about 32.5 Rating Points, or roughly 26 points.

There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, and Gold Coast rated equal to an average team.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 8, ahead of MARS with 6, and MoSHBODS with just 3.

MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of GWS.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 9 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about 6, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about 9.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at four, and that there are only two teams where the ranks span more than two spots.

There are also now five teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, North Melbourne, St Kilda, and Sydney.