2024 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders

/

The MoS twins are again expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, but only very slightly. In most cases the opinions of all four forecasters are quite similar.

In terms of this week’s highests and lowests, there is agreement about everything except the lowest scoring game:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: North Melbourne v Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have only two wagers this week, one unders and one overs. I unfortunately inadvertently neglected to take the unders on the Hawks game when the total at Sportsbet was 170.5. By the time I’d realised on Tuesday morning, it’d moved to 169.5.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 7 to 14 points, and the wager sizes from 3.0% to 6.6% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared amongst all the forecasters in Round 6, with only MoSHBODS missing out entirely:

  • Game Margins: TAB

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet

No season-long titles switched hands this week and the leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 2 points ahead of the TAB and 38 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS 5 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 33 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 11 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 3 points ahead of Sportsbet and 12 points ahead of the TAB (also 14 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

MoSSBODS had four wagers last week, one unders with the TAB that was a loser, and three unders with Sportsbet that finished 1 and 2.

It ended then at 10 and 8 with the TAB, and at 3 and 3 with Sportsbet, for an overall 13 and 11 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 4 from 8 against the TAB, and 6 from 8 against Sportsbet. That took MoSSBODS to 29 from 54 (54%) against the TAB, and 28 from 54 (52%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 3 from 8 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 25 from 54 (46%) against the TAB, and 24 from 54 (44%) against Sportsbet.