2024 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders

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Between them, the MoS twins differ by no more than two points in their Totals forecasts this week. Similarly, the two bookmakers differ between themselves by no more than a single point. The big differences come when you compare a MoS twin to a bookmaker where you can find a few gaps larger than a goal, and one as large as two goals.

In all but two of the games the MoS twins have lower Total forecasts than the bookmakers and, on average overall, they’re between 1 and 3 points below the bookmakers.

There’s, again, very little agreement about the round’s likely highests and lowests, excepting that all concur the Roos will be the lowest scoring team:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Richmond v Gold Coast

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v West Coast (and Hawthorn v North Melbourne for the TAB)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Carlton v St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle v Port Adelaide

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins and the TAB: Hawthorn

  • Sportsbet: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

MoSSBODS’ differing opinions have led Investors to have wagers in four games again this week, all unders and totalling 16% of the original Overs/Unders Fund. One other, overs wager have been prohibited by the rain rule.

The estimated overlays for the games where we have wagers range from about 6 to 12 points, and the wager sizes range from 2.2% to 5.7% accordingly.

RAIN RULE

Two potential overs wagers were ignored last week, both of which would have been losers.

Nonetheless, across the entire season, the rain rule has been a net negative.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were all taken by the TAB this week, except for Game Margins, which was taken by MoSSBODS, its first win since Round 15.

No titles switched hands this week as the TAB held onto all four. The leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 18 points ahead of Sportsbet and 118 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 21 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 24 points ahead of Sportsbet

Away Team Scores: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet and 25 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: TAB 9 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 91 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had wagers on four games last week, all of them unders, all of them with the TAB, and none of them collects.

It ended then at 29 and 38 with the TAB, and at 21 and 13 with Sportsbet, for an overall 50 and 51 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed just 2 from 9 against the TAB, which took it to 107 from 198 (54%) against them, and just 1 from 9 against Sportsbet, which took it to 109 from 198 (55%) against them. MoSHBODS landed 1 from 9 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 101 from 198 (51%) against both for the season.

Here’s the updated week-by-week forecasting performance of the twins, and the wagering performance of MoSSBODS.

From Round 8 to 23, MoSSBODS is 76 and 59 (56%) against the TAB and 76 and 59 (56%) against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS is 71 and 64 (53%) against the TAB and 70 and 65 (52%) against Sportsbet.