2024 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders

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There are some sizeable differences of opinion between the MoS twins again this week about likely Totals, differing by as much as 7 points in the Roos v Eagles game. MoSHBODS has the higher Total forecast of the pair in all but one game, and has an average expected Total 3 points per game higher than MoSSBODS.

That said, the bookmakers have, on average, even higher Totals expectations, and have come in a couple of points higher than MoSHBODS overall.

All four agree, however, about all four highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Sydney v Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Richmond v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSSBODS’ differing opinions have led Investors to have wagers in four games this week, all unders and totalling just over 16% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we have wagers range from 4.3 to 12.3 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.2% to 5.7% accordingly.

THE RAIN RULE

Application of the rain rule actually saved us a little money in Round 21.

This week there are no forecast-rain affected wagers.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were all taken by Sportsbet again this week, but with the Away Team Scores honour shared with the TAB.

No title switched hands this week, and the leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet and 97 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS: 11 points ahead of the TAB and 31 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 43 ahead of MoSSBODS)

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS: 3 points ahead of the TAB and 10 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Game Totals: TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 30 points ahead of MoSHBODS (and 36 ahead of MoSSBODS)

MoSSBODS had wagers on six games last week, three winning and one losing unders wager with the TAB, and one winning and one losing unders wager with Sportsbet.

It ended then at 28 and 32 with the TAB, and at 20 and 13 with Sportsbet, for an overall 48 and 45 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 98 from 180 (54%) against the TAB, and 101 from 180 (56%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 7 from 9 against the TAB, and 6 from 9 against Sportsbet, which took it to 96 from 180 (53%) against both for the season.

Here’s the updated week-by-week forecasting performance of the twins, and the wagering performance of MoSSBODS.

From Round 8 to 21, MoSSBODS is 67 and 50 (57%) against the TAB and 68 and 49 (58%) against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS is 66 and 51 (56%) against the TAB and 65 and 52 (56%) against Sportsbet.