2024 - Round 19 Results - Randomness is Hard to Predict
/Again this week, six of the nine early-week favourites were successful, and the large-scale conformity saw Head-to-Head Tipping scores ranging only from Consult the Ladders’ and the RSMP twins’ 5 to Home Sweet Home’s 7.
The remaining Head-to-Head Tipsters all recorded scores of 6, but allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to eke out a three tip lead ahead of the RSMP twins and MoSHBODS_Marg. First and 7th remain are still separated by 5 tips, however.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 102.3 from 162 (63%).
Margin prediction was much more difficult this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from ENS_Linear’s 29.2 points per game to MoSSBODS_Marg’s 32.6 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 30.2 points per game, which is over 14 points per game worse than last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 26.3 points per game per predictor.
There were just two movements on the Leaderboard, with RSMP_Simple and Bookie_9 swapping 2nd and 3rd, and MoSHPlay_Marg nudging RSMP_Weighted back into 7th.
The gap between 1st and 7th is, however, only 38 points.
Log probability scores were all comfortably positive and fairly similar again this week, but slightly higher for MoSHBODS_Prob and MoSHPlay_Prob.
That allowed MoSHPlay_Prob to steal 1st place away from Bookie_LPSO, and left Bookie_RE into 3rd.
WAGERING
It was another disappointing round for Investors, perhaps best typified by Port Adelaide’s after the siren behind that flipped the Tigers line bet from a winner to a loser.
Only the Head-to-Head Fund registered a profit, but that was not enough to offset the losses by the two other Funds.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by just over 4c, which leaves it down now by 17c on the season, that from a -6.5% ROT on a 2.7 turn.
Less surmountable.
