2024 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders

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The twins disagree significantly about likely Totals in a few games this week, both with each other and with the bookmakers. Overall, MoSHBODS is again the most optimistic in terms of the average forecast Total, being a point or two higher than the other forecasters.

The debate this week is solely about the lowest-scoring team:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Carlton v North Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Fremantle v Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Carlton

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS: West Coast

  • Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in five games this week, four unders and one overs, each of which has again been accommodated by a single bookmaker. A second overs wager has been passed over due to forecast rain in Adelaide on Saturday.

The five wagers total just under 23% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between about 6 and 15 points, and the wager sizes range from 2% to 6.6% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were all taken by MoSHBODS this week:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS

It’s the second time this year that MoSHBODS has been best for a round on all four metrics.

No title switched hands this week (although MoSHBODS significantly closed the gaps for those metrics where it was not already ahead), and the leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 20 points ahead of Sportsbet and 51 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 40 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 52 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 12 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 28 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 3 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 22 points ahead of the TAB

MoSSBODS had wagers on four games last week, one overs with the TAB that finished 1 and 0, two unders wagers with the TAB that finished 1 and 1, and a single unders wager with Sportsbet that finished 1 and 0 also.

It ended then at 23 and 27 with the TAB, and at 19 and 11 with Sportsbet, for an overall 42 and 38 record (note that a reconciliation of the data revealed an unders loss with Sportsbet had been incorrectly recorded as a TAB loss).

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 7 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 86 from 153 (56%) against the TAB, and 88 from 153 (58%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 7 from 9 against both bookmakers, which took it to 84 from 153 (55%) against both the TAB and Sportsbet.

In a new table this week (the creation of which revealed the misattributed losing unders bet), I’ve recorded the week-by-week forecasting performance of both twins, and the wagering performance of MoSSBODS.

From Round 8 to 18, MoSSBODS is 55 and 35 (61%) against the TAB, and 54 and 36 (60%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS is 55 and 35 (61%) against the TAB as well, and 53 and 37 (59%) against Sportsbet