2023 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/Geelong slipped into top spot on both Systems this week, relegating Collingwood to 2nd, despite their win over Essendon. Melbourne sit 3rd on both Systems.
Overall, 12 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 13 by MoSHBODS, five by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and just three by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Only one team moved by more than two spots on MoSSBODS, and that was Western Bulldogs climbing three spots into 8th. On MoSHBODS, no team moved by more than two spots.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9870.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Lions, and Pies, while on defence we find both Systems still with Top 3s of Saints, Pies, and Cats.
To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 6 across V/AFL history.
Collingwood and Geelong, still, are the only teams that have Combined Ratings that are in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 2 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). Fremantle and, in particular, St Kilda still have quite unusual pairings of offensive and defensive ratings.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.65, which is up a little on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only nine teams this week, and none of them from the Top 4 or Bottom 5.
Geelong remains top, ahead of Melbourne, with Sydney remaining in 3rd place despite shedding 6 Rating Points.
The only two teams climbing multiple spots were the Dogs, up three into 9th, and the Crows, up two into 11th. Fremantle were the only team to fall multiple spots, they sliding from 10th to 13th.
There are now 10 teams rated average or better-than-average by MARS, with Adelaide on 998.2, and Carlton on 998.1 only just missing that list.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at 68 Rating Points, which is up by about another 9 Rating Points on where it was last week. The gap between first and eighth now stands at just under 25 Rating Points, which is up about 5 Rating Points on last week.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda, Essendon, Adelaide, and Carlton
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong, Sydney, and Richmond
MARS this week provides only the second-most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for five of the teams. MARS is especially different in terms of its Collingwood and Richmond rankings.
MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for 12 of the teams, and MoSHBODS for only 1. MoSSBODS is particularly different in terms of its Port Adelaide ranking.
MoSHBODS and MARS now agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about four teams, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about five teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Collingwood and Richmond (4 spots) have the widest range of rankings, while 13 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Geelong, GWS, and North Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
