2023 - Round 4 Results - Routine

There were six bookmaker favourites that won this week, though enough MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters ignored favouritism that we ended up with a 5.4 from 9 all-Tipster average.

Home Sweet Home did enough, however, to retain top spot, and is now on 23.5 from 36 (65%), but just one tip ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 22,5 (63%) and a further tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 21.5 (60%).

The all-Tipster average now stands at 19.9 from 36 (55%).

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The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) covered a range from Bookie_3’s 24.2 points per game to MoSHBODS_Marg’s 28.3 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 26.2 points per game per Predictor, up about 2.5 points per game on the Round 3 figure.

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Bookie_9’s performance was enough to move it back into 1st place on the Leaderboard, ahead now of Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_3. MoSHBODS_Marg, now in 4th place, is now nonetheless the best of the MoS trio.

Log probability scores were all positive this week, though most positive for MoSSBODS_Prob, which sits 1st on the Leaderboard, and next-most positive for MoSHPlay_Prob, which sits 3rd.

So far, then, it’s the bookie-based Margin Predictors than have dominated the MoS family versions on margin forecasts, but it’s the MoS family Probability Predictors that have dominated the bookie-based equivalents on probability estimation.

WAGERING

Although the back end of the long weekend was disappointing, the front end had already done enough to ensure that Investors finished the round with a small profit.

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Both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds made profit, while the Overs/Unders Fund went 0 and 5, which ultimatley meant that the Combined Portfolio jumped by 0.7c, leaving it up 6.6c on the season, that from a 33% ROT on an 0.2 turn.