2022 - Team Ratings After Round 9
/Ten teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and nine did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 2nd, 12th, 15th and 16th though disagreeing by no more than two places about the remaining 13 teams.
Melbourne and Geelong remain first and second, respectively, on both Systems.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and 10 teams on MoSHBODS.
Altogether, there were only two multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS, Sydney up two spots, and Collingwood down two. There were three multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS: Gold Coast up three, and Fremantle and Collingwood down two each..
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.9906. The correlation on defence alone is +0.9839 and on offence alone +0.9918.
To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after nine rounds of their respective seasons.
Melbourne continues to be highly rated in historical terms, and is now more comfortably in the top decile of ultimate Grand Finalists. Geelong remains the only other team rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final. West Coast, having recorded just 54.2 points and 14.8 scoring shots per game, is one of the lowest-rated teams, offensively after nine rounds of a season, across the entire history of V/AFL.
The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Dees, Cats, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS with Dees, Tigers, and Lions. On defence, we find both Systems still with a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Cats.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 3), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 3). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.71.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams this week, but leaving the Top 4 and Bottom 3 unchanged.
The big movers were Fremantle, down four spots into 9th, and Gold Coast, up three spots into 12th.
MARS continues to agree with the MoS twins about Melbourne being the top-ranked side, but is also maintaining a much lower ranking for Fremantle (9th vs 4th or 6th), and St Kilda (7th vs 3rd or 4th).
Ten teams are now rated as better-than-average by MARS, but no others are Rated higher than 993.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 78 Rating Points, which is up by about 8 Rating Points compared to last week.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a few teams, the largest being for Carlton, where the team’s ladder position is well above its System Ranking, and for Geelong, where the team’s ladder positions is well below their System Rankings.
MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams, a figure that is, still surprisingly, matched by MoSSBODS
MoSHBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for only three teams.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about the ranking of just five teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about six teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS also just five teams.
If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Fremantle (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but that the range is just two spots or less for all but five teams.
The three Systems have the same ranking for Adelaide, Essendon, and Melbourne.
