2022 - Team Ratings After Round 23

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There was quite a bit of movement on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, though Geelong did enough to retain top spot on both Rating Systems. Just below them, Melbourne grabbed 2nd from Sydney on both Systems as the latter didn’t do enough against the Saints to impress them.

In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and 10 on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems disagreeing only about the 6th and 7th, and 15th and 16th spots.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.

There were two multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS this week, including Western Bulldogs up 3 spots, and Brisbane Lions down 5 spots, and there were five multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Western Bulldogs up 3 spots, Carlton and Gold Coast up 2 spots, Collingwood down 2 spots, and Brisbane Lions down 4 spots.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.996. The correlation on defence alone is +0.990 and on offence alone +0.995.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 23 rounds of their respective seasons. Bear in mind that any season with fewer than 23 home-and-away rounds will have no teams in this chart.

Geelong, Sydney, and Melbourne are now the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final. Collingwood, the other Top 4 team, are notably rated in the lowest 10% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

Or, if you prefer a static view of the teams’ combined MoSSBODS Ratings, here’s an updated version of that chart

And here’s the updated MoSHBODS version.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find both Systems now with a Top 3 of Tigers, Cats, and Swans, while on defence, we find both with a Top 3 of Cats, Dees, and Dockers.

Both Systems rate the same eight teams as above-average on offence. MoSSBODS rates 12 as above-average on defence, while MoSHBODS rates only 11 teams that way.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.68, which is up quite a bit compared to last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked five teams this week, swapping Richmond into 4th and demoting Brisbane Lions, and dropping Essendon down 2 spots into 15th and promoting GWS into 13th and Hawthorn into 14th.

In terms of groupings, we now have, according to MARS, roughly:

  • Geelong, Melbourne, and Sydney (1,030 to 1,043)

  • Richmond, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Fremantle (1,010 to 1,023)

  • Carlton, Collingwood, St Kilda, and Gold Coast (993 to 1,003)

  • GWS, Hawthorn, Essendon, and Adelaide (977 to 983)

  • West Coast and North Melbourne (936 to 950)

Ten teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda rated just under than mark at 997.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just over 107 Rating Points, which is up about 7 Rating Points on last week.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for Collingwood where the team’s ladder position is well above its System Ranking, and for Port Adelaide where the team’s ladder position is well below its System Rankings.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for six of the teams, MoSSBODS for two, and MoSHBODS for two also.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 14 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about 10 teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about 12 teams. There has very much been a coalescing of opinion about the relative merits of most teams.

If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Brisbane Lions (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that the range is just two spots or less for the remaining 17 teams.

The three Systems now have the same ranking for Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, and West Coast.