2022 - Round 23 : Overs/Unders

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The average absolute difference between MoSSBODS and bookmaker expected Totals this week is about 8.5 points per game, and between MoSHBODS and bookmaker expected Totals is about 7.5 points per game. Those are some of the highest figures this season, surpassed only by those for Round 16, where expected rainfall in a few games dragged the bookmakers’ Totals lower, and by those for Round 14, which included only six games and which was also expected to be rain-affected. Only one game this week is expected to be rain-affected.

All four forecasters are, however, in reasonable agreement about the likely highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Essendon v Richmond

  • TAB and Sportsbet: North Melbourne v Gold Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: GWS v Fremantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found value in five unders and one overs bet this week, and would have opted for a second overs wager but for the Saturday Melbourne forecast of showers.

The estimated overlays in the games where Investors have wagers range from 7 to about 15 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 22 was a good one for MoSSBODS and saw it pick up honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals (though only just for those first two metrics), leaving Sportsbet to register best MAE for Game Margins.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and the TAB with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 31.5 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 0.3 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 14.9 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 62.5 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Game Totals: MoSHBODS 11.4 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had one wager last week, a successful under bet with the TAB, taking it to 26 and 15 with them for the season. It remains at 8 and 4 with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 7 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 109 from 189 (58%) for the season, and also a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 106 from 189 (56%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 5 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 108 from 189 (57%) for the season against them, and also a 5 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 102 from 189 (54%) for the season against them.