2022 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders

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At least one of the MoS twins disagrees fairly significantly with the bookmakers this week in every game, despite the fact that their average expected margins are quite close.

Opinions about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams are as follows:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Gold Coast v Richmond

  • MoSHBODS, TAB, and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: St Kilda v Fremantle

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda v Fremantle, and Sydney v Western Bulldogs (and also Geelong v Melbourne for the TAB)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS, TAB, and Sportsbet: Collingwood

  • MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Four unders and one overs wager this week (and almost a second overs wager but for the forecast)

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from 7.5 to 12.9 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 16 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) all accrue to the TAB, although only jointly with Sportsbet for Game Totals..

That left MoSSBODS with the season-long best MAE now only for Game Margins, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB now with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 23.8 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 10.1 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 12.2 ahead of MoSSBODS)

Away Team Scores: TAB 18.4 points ahead of Sportsbet

Game Totals: TAB 14.8 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS went 1 and 0 on its unders wager with the TAB, moving it to a 19 and 10 record for the season with them. With Sportsbet its record is still 7 and 3.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 2 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 75 from 135 (55%) for the season, and also a 2 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 72 from 135 (53%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 3 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 76 from 135 (56%) for the season against them, and also a 3 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 71 from 135 (53%) for the season against them.

Those are all now not looking so comfortably above chance levels.