2022 - Round 16 : Overs/Unders

/

The MoS twins have some very different opinions than the bookmakers this week on a number games, disagreeing by, on average, about a goal and a half per game. In three games they expect more points - in two of which, rain is expected - and in six games they expect fewer points.

There’s still some agreement this week, however, about which will be the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Fremantle v Port Adelaide

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Gold Coast v Collingwood

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Richmond

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Just one unders wager this week after two overs bets were passed over due to the forecast.

The estimated overlay for the wager is just under 20 points, which must be one of the highest Investors have enjoyed this year.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 15 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) all accrue to MoSHBODS.

That left MoSSBODS with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins and, now, Game Totals again, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB still (and now only) with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

MoSSBODS went 1 and 0 on its unders wager with Sportsbet, moving it to a 7 and 3 record for the season with them. With the TAB its record is still 19 and 9.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded an 8 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 73 from 126 (57%) for the season, and a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 70 from 126 (56%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 6 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 73 from 126 (58%) for the season against them, and also a 6 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 68 from 126 (54%) for the season against them.

Those are all now looking comfortably above chance levels.