2022 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are this week forecasting average Totals very similar to the bookmakers’, but they do have some quite different views about individual games.

There is some agreement this week in the choice of lowests but not highests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Essendon v Carlton

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions v St Kilda

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Fremantle v Hawthorn

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Carlton

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: GWS

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Hawthorn

WAGERS

Just two unders wagers this week, after two others, that would have been overs bets, were declined based on the weather forecast.

The estimated overlays for the wagers are both around 8 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 12 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) spread across the two bookmakers. The TAB bookmaker had the low MAE for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet the low MAE for Game Margins and Home Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins but also now for Game Totals, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

MoSSBODS went 0 and 1 on its unders wager with Sportsbet, moving it to a 5 and 3 record with Sportbet, and leaving it with a 17 and 7 record for the season with the TAB.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 2 from 6 result against the TAB, moving it to 58 from 105 (55%) for the season, and a 2 from 6 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 58 from 105 (55%) for the season.

MoSHBODS also recorded a 2 from 6 result against the TAB, moving it to 61 from 105 (58%) for the season against them, and a 2 from 6 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 57 from 105 (54%) for the season against them.