2022 - Round 1 : We're Still Here - Who Knew?

/

Welcome back to all my long-term followers, hello to all my new followers (and arrivederci to those who’ve left, not that they’ll read this, I know).

For all that’s happened globally, locally, and for me, personally, since last we talked, it’s genuinely good to be back.

I realise it’s maybe a tad early to be posting Round 1 wagers and forecasts, but that just reflects the impatience of our time (oh, okay, and maybe my teenager-like impatience to get this thing started, as well)

Here’s what we have …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Not a great deal of contrarianism this week, with even Home Sweet Home selecting just a trio of underdogs. It was joined, importantly, by the MoS twins only in the Crows v Dockers game, and by the newly optimised ENS_Linear in the Giants v Swans game.

The only other contrarian tips have come from MoSSBODS_Marg in the Cats v Bombers game, and from CTL in the Lions v Power game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including 21 points in the Adelaide v Fremantle game, and 14 points in the Geelong v Essendon game.

MoSHBODS_Marg is the most extreme Predictor in four of the nine games, and MoSSBODS_Marg, ENS_Linear, and Bookie_3 in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with double-digit percentage point probability estimates, with the maximum of 23% points in the Adelaide v Fremantle game.

Bookie_OE has the most extreme probability estimates in five games, and the MoS twins in four.

WAGERS

In recent seasons, early rounds have generally been a source of generous profits, and we can only hope that might again be the choice this season, as the Head-to-Head and Line Funds have seen fit to each make post-Lockdown splurges. What we all collectively hope most of all is that the bookmakers have underestimated the Crows’ talents this week.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The line bets range in size from 0.1% to 4.1% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 1.1% to 3.6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by about 7.2c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by about 8.9c. To be honest, that’s a scary amount to be put at risk so early in the season.

Adelaide, comfortably, carries the most risk, with the difference between a Crows win and a loss by 5 points or more representing more than a 6c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Hawthorn representing a potential 2c swing, West Coast 1.9c, Brisbane Lions 1.7c, Essendon and Melbourne 1.6c, and Carlton 1.1c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.