2021 - Round 24 (Week 1 of the Finals) : What Home Ground Advantage?
/It’s Monday night and we have teams, dates, and venues. Almost like a normal season.
All four notional home teams are favourites, according to the bookmakers, which is what you might expect if you scanned recent history, where you’d find that only the 5th vs 8th Elimination Final had produced anything like equally-likely outcomes.
None of the teams, though, is more than a two-goal favourite, so it’s more likely than not that we’ll see at least one underdog victory.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
With home team favourites, not even Home Sweet Home could offer a contrarian forecast this week.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, the biggest forecast ranges is in the Power v Cats game where it is only 12 points.
RSMP_Simple has three of the most extreme forecasts, and MoSHBODS_Marg has two.
MoSHBODS_Marg currently trails RSMP_Simple on the Leaderboard by just under 33 points. At best it could cut that lead to about 2 points this week.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, it’s also the Power v Cats game that has produced the largest range of probability estimates. It’s only 13% points, however.
MoSHBODS_Prob has three of the extreme estimates, and Bookie_OE and Bookie_RE two each.
WAGERS
Finals weeks have traditionally been quiet ones for Investors, and this week sees just a single bet on Port Adelaide head-to-head.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
