2021 - Round 20 Results - Have I Not Mentioned Reversion To The Mean?
/We saw quite a range of outcomes on head-to-head tipping this week, with 6’s and 7’s from the MoS twins, and 4’s and 5’s from everyone else.
That left MoSSBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard on 114 from 171 (67%), two tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and three tips clear of MoSHPlay_Marg.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, honours went to MoSHBODS_Marg with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 23.3 points per game, which was enough to see it climb three places on the Leaderboard.
The other MoS siblings also climbed, as you can see in the chart below.
The all-Predictor MAE was 27 points per game, even though those in the Top 4 spots recorded higher values.
Log probability scores were positive for all the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week, but more so for the MoS siblings, which saw them occupy three of the Top 4 places on the Leaderboard, including MoSHPlay_Prob in 1st, and MoSHBODS_Prob in 2nd.
WAGERS
If you don’t doubt yourself after the last three rounds, you genuinely don’t deserve to run a vaguely popular blog like this one, but mercifully this round screamed “reversion to the mean is real” and saw Investors enjoy a profit roughly equal to last week’s loss.
The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 5.6c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 5.5c, that from a +5.3% ROT on a 1.04 turn.
