2021 - Round 2 Results - Dangerously Encouraged

With all but Control The Ladder and Home Sweet Home bagging 8 from 9 correct tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, it’s almost enough to convince me that “accuracy” might be a reasonable measure of a forecaster’s ability (hint: it absolutely isn’t).

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Those near-perfect records have left us with a four-way tie at the lead, comprising two the purely team-based MoS forecasters, and the RSMP twins.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, MoSHPlay_Marg was best with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.8 points per game, which saw it finish the round just over 7 points ahead of Bookie_Hcap and in first place on the ladder. In contrast, despite their solid head-to-head tipping, the RSMP twins did poorly on margin forecasting, and now see themselves filling the bottom two places on that same ladder.

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All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors finished with positive log probability scores, MoSHPlay_Prob best of all, and now sitting atop the Leaderboard ahead of the two other family members.

WAGERS

Another loss for Investors in Round 2, again hindered by the poor performance of the Overs/Unders Fund, but also not helped by the half-point loss on the line wager in the Dogs v Eagles game.

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In aggregate, the Combined Portfolio is down by 0.6c, this from a -7% ROT on an 0.09 turn.